160
AXPZ20 KNHC 180813 CCA
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED DEC 18 2024
CORRECTED FORECAST FOR OFFHHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE GAP
WINDS ONGOING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH GALE-FORCE BY WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SAT
NIGHT. A A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO
SOUTHERN PANAMA TO 08N81W TO 07N86W TO 06N93W, WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ AND CONTINUES TO 06N100W TO 06N110W
TO 08N120W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N122W TO 05N124W. IT RESUMES
WEST OF THIS TROUGH AT 07N125W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN
108W AND 110W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
CORRECTED
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1026 MB IS CENTERED WELL TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE NEAR 34N127W. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
HIGH EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE RELATED
GRADIENT IS ALLOWING FOR GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF CABO SAN
LAZARO ALONG WITH 5 TO 8 FT SEAS IN NORTHWEST SWELL, EXCEPT FOR
HIGHER SEAS OF 7 TO 11 FT WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE.
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WINDS ARE MODERATE TO FRESH IN SPEEDS
AND NORTHWEST IN DIRECTION WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. STRONG TO NEAR
GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION OF
TEHUANTEPEC ALONG WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS IN MIXED SWELL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICAN OFFSHORE ZONES.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE GRADIENT RELATED TO THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PULSING
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS N OF CABO SAN LAZARO
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. NEW NORTHWEST SWELL IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH PUNTA EUGENIA LATE TONIGHT AND SUBSIDE N OF CABO SAN
LAZARO THU MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE
CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO FRESH
SPEEDS WED NIGHT, AND BE AT MOSTLY MODERATE SPEEDS STARTING ON
THU. WHILE, GENTLE OR WEAKER WINDS WILL PREVAIL SUN. STRONG TO
NEAR GALE- FORCE GAP WINDS ONGOING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
REGION ARE EXPECTED TO REACH GALE-FORCE BY WED NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS ARE PULSING TO STRONG SPEEDS IN THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION SUPPORTED BY A RELATIVELY TIGHT
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS PRESENT OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA, AND
A TROUGH THAT IS ANALYZED IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. MODERATE
TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE PULSING IN THE GULF OF PANAMA,
WHERE SEAS REMAIN IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE. ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH AND BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS, SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE LIGHT TO GENTLE AND SEAS ARE TO 5 FT IN A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO PULSE IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS ALONG
WITH MODERATE SEAS. MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS PULSING TO FRESH
SPEEDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH SUN. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRI, THEN MAINLY GENTLE SPEEDS WILL PREVAIL.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1027 MB IS ANALYZED NEAR 34N127W. A RIDGE
EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THIS HIGH ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL
WATERS, WHICH IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS
WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA OFFSHORES ALONG WITH SEAS TO AROUND 8
FT REACHING TO NEAR 120W. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND
RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE FOUND TO ITS SOUTH IS SUSTAINING FRESH
TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE TROPICAL WATERS WEST OF ABOUT 123W,
WHERE SEAS ARE 8 TO 12 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE ELSEWHERE
SOUTH OF THE ITCZ AND NORTH OF THE ITCZ EAST OF 115W.
FOR THE FORECAST, MOSTLY FRESH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AND SEAS
TO 10 FT WILL BE PRESENT WEST OF ABOUT 123W THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY WED AS THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN PLACE CHANGES
LITTLE. HOWEVER, PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY
ALONG THE ITCZ TONIGHT THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE AREA ON WED,
PRECEDED BY FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS, AND ALSO TO BE
PRECEDED BY THE LEADING EDGE OF A NEW SET OF NORTHWEST SWELL. A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON FRI WHEN THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO BAJA CALIFORNIA ADJACENT
WATERS, THUS CREATING A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SUPPORTING
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS NORTH OF 28N AND VERY ROUGH SEAS TO NEAR 23
FT THAT WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD NEAR 30N THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AGUIRRE
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