188
AXPZ20 KNHC 180909
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED DEC 18 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0845 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0322 UTC
LAST NIGHT INDICATED STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE GAP WINDS ONGOING
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH GALE-FORCE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT. A
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH
SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO
PANAMA TO 08N83W TO 06N88W TO 07N92W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO
THE ITCZ AND CONTINUES TO 07N102W TO 07N112W TO 08N123W. A
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N125W TO 05N125W. THE ITCZ RESUMES WEST OF
THIS TROUGH AT 07N126W AND TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM SOUTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 105W AND
109W AND BETWEEN 126W AND 131W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1027 MB IS ANALYZED WEST-NORTHWEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE NEAR 32N129W. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE RELATED
GRADIENT IS ALLOWING FOR GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF CABO SAN
LAZARO ALONG WITH 5 TO 8 FT SEAS IN NORTHWEST SWELL, EXCEPT FOR
HIGHER SEAS OF 7 TO 11 FT WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. IN THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WINDS ARE MODERATE TO FRESH IN SPEEDS AND
NORTHWEST IN DIRECTION WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. STRONG TO NEAR GALE-
FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION
ALONG WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
IN MIXED SWELL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN MEXICAN OFFSHORE
ZONES.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE GRADIENT RELATED TO THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR GENTLE TO MODERATE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS TO BE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
N OF CABO SAN LAZARO THROUGH THIS MORNING, THEN BE AT LIGHT TO
GENTLE SPEEDS THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO MODERATE TO FRESH SPEEDS AFTERWARD DURING THE
WEEKEND. A NEW SET OF NORTHWEST SWELL IS FORECAST TO APPROACH
BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING DURING THU
MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF
CALIFORNIA WILL DIMINISH SOME TO FRESH SPEEDS TONIGHT,TO MOSTLY
MODERATE SPEEDS FROM THU TO SAT NIGHT AND TO LIGHT TO GENTLE
SPEEDS SUN AND SUN NIGHT. STRONG TO NEAR GALE- FORCE GAP WINDS
ONGOING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION ARE FORECAST TO REACH
GALE-FORCE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS ARE PULSING TO STRONG SPEEDS IN THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION GENERALLY DRIVEN BY THE GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED TO HIGH PRESSURE THAT EXTENDS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE PULSING IN THE GULF OF PANAMA, WHERE SEAS
ARE 4 TO 6 FT. ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND BETWEEN
ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS, SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE LIGHT TO GENTLE
AND SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT IN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO PULSE IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS ALONG
WITH MODERATE SEAS. MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS PULSING TO FRESH
SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH SUN. GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRI, THEN MAINLY GENTLE SPEEDS WILL PREVAIL
AFTERWARD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1027 MB IS ANALYZED NEAR 32N129W. A RIDGE
EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THIS HIGH ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL
WATERS, WHICH IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS
WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA OFFSHORES ALONG WITH SEAS TO AROUND 8
FT REACHING TO NEAR 120W. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND
RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE FOUND TO ITS SOUTH IS SUSTAINING FRESH
TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE TROPICAL WATERS WEST OF ABOUT 123W,
WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 8 TO 11 FT RANGE. A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS
ANALYZED ALONG 125W FROM 05N TO 10N HAS HELPED TO SUSTAIN THE
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AS WHERE NOTED IN AN ASCAT SATELLITE DATA
PASS FROM YESTERDAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 04N TO 06N BETWEEN 124W AND
126W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF THE ITCZ
AND NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 120W.
FOR THE FORECAST, MOSTLY FRESH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AND SEAS
TO 11 FT WILL BE PRESENT WEST OF ABOUT 123W THROUGH THU AS THE
GRADIENT IN PLACE FLUCTUATES LITTLE. THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD THOUGH THU WHILE LOSING ITS IDENTITY. THE
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS NEAR WILL DIMINISH TO MOSTLY FRESH SPEEDS
ON THU. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH 30N140W TONIGHT,
PRECEDED BY FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE LEADING EDGE OF
A LARGE SET OF NORTHWEST SWELL IS FORECAST TO OUTRUN THE FRONT
REACHING FROM NEAR 30N132W TO 23N140W BY WED NIGHT. SEAS WITH
THIS SWELL ARE EXPECTED TO BE OF 8 TO 10 FT. A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT WILL BRIEFLY SKIRT THE NORTHWEST FORECAST WATERS FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT WHILE WEAKENING. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH
30N140W ON MON, PRECEDED BY FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WEST
WINDS, AND LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE HAVE THE LEADING EDGE OF A LARGE
SET OF NORTHWEST OUT AHEAD OF IT. LATEST WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE
FROM THE GFS DEPICTS SEAS TO ABOUT 20 FT NEAR 30N AND WEST OF
135W ON MON.
AGUIRRE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page