196
AXPZ20 KNHC 181601
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED DEC 18 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1530 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0322 UTC
LAST NIGHT INDICATED STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE GAP WINDS ONGOING
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH GALE-FORCE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT. A
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH
SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 06N92W, WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ AND CONTINUES TO 07N123W. A TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 10N125W TO 05N126W. THE ITCZ RESUMES WEST OF THIS
TROUGH AT 07N128W AND TO BEYOND 07N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS DEPICTED FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 122W AND 127W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1028 MB IS ANALYZED NORTHWEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE NEAR 35N126W. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH
EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE RELATED
GRADIENT IS ALLOWING FOR GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF CABO SAN
LAZARO ALONG WITH 4 TO 8 FT SEAS IN NORTHWEST SWELL, EXCEPT FOR
HIGHER SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. IN THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WINDS ARE MODERATE TO FRESH IN SPEEDS AND
NORTHWEST IN DIRECTION WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. STRONG TO NEAR GALE-
FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION
ALONG WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
IN MIXED SWELL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN MEXICAN OFFSHORE
ZONES.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE GRADIENT RELATED TO THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR GENTLE TO MODERATE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS TO BE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS N OF
CABO SAN LAZARO THROUGH THIS MORNING, THEN TO BE AT LIGHT TO
GENTLE SPEEDS THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO MODERATE TO FRESH SPEEDS DURING THE WEEKEND AND
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. A NEW SET OF NORTHWEST SWELL
IS FORECAST TO APPROACH BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
SUBSIDING DURING THU MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN
THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL DIMINISH SOME TO FRESH SPEEDS
TONIGHT, TO MOSTLY MODERATE SPEEDS FROM THU TO SAT NIGHT AND TO
LIGHT TO GENTLE SPEEDS SUN AND SUN NIGHT. STRONG TO NEAR GALE-
FORCE GAP WINDS ONGOING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION ARE
FORECAST TO REACH GALE-FORCE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
SAT NIGHT.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS ARE PULSING TO STRONG SPEEDS IN THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION WITH SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. THESE WINDS ARE
GENERALLY DRIVEN BY THE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED TO HIGH PRESSURE
THAT EXTENDS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE PULSING IN THE
GULF OF PANAMA, WHERE SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT. ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH AND BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS, SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE LIGHT TO GENTLE IN SPEEDS, AND SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT IN A
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO PULSE IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS ALONG
WITH MODERATE SEAS. MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS PULSING TO FRESH
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN IN THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH SUN. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRI, THEN MAINLY GENTLE SPEEDS WILL PREVAIL
AFTERWARD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1028 MB IS ANALYZED NEAR 35N126W. A RIDGE
EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THIS HIGH ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL
WATERS, WHICH IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS
WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA OFFSHORES ALONG WITH SEAS 8 TO 10 FT
REACHING TO NEAR 120W. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND
RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE FOUND TO ITS SOUTH IS SUSTAINING FRESH
TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES OVER THE TROPICAL WATERS WEST OF ABOUT
124W, WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 8 TO 11 FT RANGE. A SURFACE TROUGH
THAT IS ANALYZED ALONG 126W FROM 05N TO 10N HAS HELPED TO
SUSTAIN THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE
ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF THE ITCZ AND NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 120W.
FOR THE FORECAST, MOSTLY FRESH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AND SEAS
TO 11 FT WILL BE PRESENT WEST OF ABOUT 123W THROUGH THU AS THE
GRADIENT IN PLACE FLUCTUATES LITTLE. THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD THOUGH THU WHILE LOSING ITS IDENTITY. THE
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS NEAR WILL DIMINISH TO MOSTLY FRESH SPEEDS
ON THU. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH 30N140W TONIGHT,
PRECEDED BY FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE LEADING EDGE OF
A LARGE SET OF NORTHWEST SWELL IS FORECAST TO OUTRUN THE FRONT
REACHING FROM NEAR 30N132W TO 23N140W BY WED NIGHT. SEAS
GENERATED BY WITH THIS SWELL ARE EXPECTED TO BE OF 8 TO 10 FT. A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL SKIRT THE NORTHWEST FORECAST WATERS
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT PRECEDED BY FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND SEAS TO
14 FT. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH 30N140W ON MON,
PRECEDED BY FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS, AND LIKE THE
PREVIOUS ONE, HAVE THE LEADING EDGE OF A LARGE SET OF NORTHWEST
OUT AHEAD OF IT. LATEST WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS DEPICTS
SEAS TO ABOUT 20 FT NEAR 30N AND WEST OF 135W ON MON.
KRV
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page