013
AXPZ20 KNHC 182203
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED DEC 18 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2130 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: THE STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE
WINDS ONGOING OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE FORECAST TO REACH
GALE-FORCE SPEEDS TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT. A
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
FOLLOWED BY A HIGH PRESSURE TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH
SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 06N92W, WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ AND CONTINUES TO 06N125W. A TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 10N127W TO 06N128W. THE ITCZ RESUMES WEST OF THIS
TROUGH AT 06N130W AND TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
DEPICTED FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 136W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1028 MB IS ANALYZED NORTHWEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE NEAR 35N127W. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH
EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE RELATED
GRADIENT HAS RELAXED SOME ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO DECREASE TO LIGHT
TO GENTLE WITH SEAS 5 TO 8 FT IN NORTHWEST SWELL, EXCEPT FOR
HIGHER SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. IN THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA, RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTED FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS OVER THE AREA WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. STRONG TO
NEAR GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
REGION ALONG WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS IN MIXED SWELL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICAN OFFSHORE ZONES.
FOR THE FORECAST, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
N OF CABO SAN LAZARO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT. WINDS IN
THESE AREAS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO MODERATE TO FRESH SPEEDS
DURING THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE WITHIN THAT RANGE THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. A NEW SET OF NORTHWEST SWELL IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING
THU MORNING. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE
CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL DIMINISH SOME TO FRESH SPEEDS
TONIGHT, TO MOSTLY MODERATE SPEEDS FROM THU TO SAT NIGHT AND TO
LIGHT TO GENTLE SPEEDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. STRONG TO
NEAR GALE-FORCE GAP WINDS ONGOING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
REGION ARE FORECAST TO REACH GALE-FORCE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS ARE PULSING TO STRONG SPEEDS IN THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION WITH SEAS 4 TO 7 FT. THESE WINDS ARE
GENERALLY DRIVEN BY THE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED TO HIGH PRESSURE THAT
EXTENDS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE PULSING IN THE GULF
OF PANAMA, WHERE SEAS ARE 3 TO 5 FT. ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH AND BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS, SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE LIGHT TO GENTLE IN SPEEDS, AND SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT IN A
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO PULSE IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS ALONG
WITH MODERATE SEAS. MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS PULSING TO FRESH
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN IN THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH SUN. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRI, THEN MAINLY GENTLE SPEEDS WILL PREVAIL
AFTERWARD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1028 MB IS ANALYZED NEAR 35N127W. A RIDGE
EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THIS HIGH ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL
WATERS, WHICH IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS
WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA OFFSHORES ALONG WITH SEAS 8 TO 11 FT
REACHING TO NEAR 120W. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND
RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE FOUND TO ITS SOUTH IS SUSTAINING FRESH
TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES OVER THE TROPICAL WATERS WEST OF ABOUT
124W, WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 8 TO 12 FT RANGE. A SURFACE TROUGH
THAT IS ANALYZED ALONG 127W FROM 06N TO 10N HAS HELPED TO
SUSTAIN THE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF THE ITCZ AND NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST
OF 120W.
FOR THE FORECAST, MOSTLY FRESH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AND SEAS
TO 11 FT WILL BE PRESENT WEST OF ABOUT 123W THROUGH THU AS THE
GRADIENT IN PLACE FLUCTUATES LITTLE. THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD THOUGH THU WHILE LOSING ITS IDENTITY. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH 30N140W TONIGHT, PRECEDED BY
FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE LEADING EDGE OF A LARGE SET
OF NORTHWEST SWELL IS FORECAST TO OUTRUN THE FRONT REACHING FROM
NEAR 30N132W TO 27N140W LATE TONIGHT. BY THU SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9
TO 14 FT IN THE AREA OF THESE WINDS. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WILL SKIRT THE NORTHWEST FORECAST WATERS FRI NIGHT PRECEDED BY
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND SEAS TO 19 FT. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MAY APPROACH 30N140W ON MON, PRECEDED BY FRESH TO STRONG
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS, AND LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE, HAVE THE
LEADING EDGE OF A LARGE SET OF NORTHWEST OUT AHEAD OF IT. LATEST
WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS DEPICTS SEAS TO ABOUT 20 FT NEAR
30N AND WEST OF 134W ON MON.
KRV
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