665
AXPZ20 KNHC 190425
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU DEC 19 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING:
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND A HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS WAKE WILL
ENHANCE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS
GOING TO SUSTAIN NEAR GALE TO GALE-FORCE GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS UNDER THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL PEAK BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FT. AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS EASTWARD, THIS SHOULD ALLOW WINDS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES_EASTPAC.PHP FOR MORE
DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM THE WEST COAST OF CENTRAL
COSTA RICO TO 04N93W. AN ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N93W ACROSS 05N110W
TO 07N128W, THEN FROM 70N132W TO BEYOND 140W AT 07N. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 04N
TO 06N BETWEEN 79W AND 85W, AND NEAR THE ITCZ FROM 06N TO 10N
WEST OF 135W.
UPDATED THE FORECAST PORTION IN BOTH OFFSHORE WATERS SECTIONS
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1028 MB IS ANALYZED NORTHWEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE NEAR 35N127W. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH
EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE RELATED
GRADIENT HAS RELAXED SOME ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO DECREASE TO LIGHT
TO GENTLE WITH SEAS 5 TO 8 FT IN NORTHWEST SWELL, EXCEPT FOR
HIGHER SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. IN THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA, RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTED FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS OVER THE AREA WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. STRONG TO
NEAR GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
REGION ALONG WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS IN MIXED SWELL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICAN OFFSHORE ZONES.
FOR THE FORECAST, STRONG TO GALE-FORCE GAP WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
SUN MORNING, THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS NORTH OF CABO SAN
LAZARO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT, THEN INCREASE TO BETWEEN
MODERATE AND FRESH THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NW SWELL
PERSIST WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING THU
MORNING. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF
CALIFORNIA WILL DIMINISH TO BETWEEN GENTLE TO MODERATE BY THU.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS ARE PULSING TO STRONG SPEEDS IN THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION WITH SEAS 4 TO 7 FT. THESE WINDS ARE
GENERALLY DRIVEN BY THE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED TO HIGH PRESSURE THAT
EXTENDS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE PULSING IN THE GULF
OF PANAMA, WHERE SEAS ARE 3 TO 5 FT. ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH AND BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS, SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE LIGHT TO GENTLE IN SPEEDS, AND SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT IN A
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
PULSE IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS ALONG WITH
MODERATE SEAS. MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS PULSING TO FRESH WILL
OCCUR IN THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH SUN. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRI, THEN MAINLY GENTLE WILL PREVAIL AFTERWARD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1028 MB IS ANALYZED NEAR 35N127W. A RIDGE
EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THIS HIGH ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL
WATERS, WHICH IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS
WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA OFFSHORES ALONG WITH SEAS 8 TO 11 FT
REACHING TO NEAR 120W. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND
RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE FOUND TO ITS SOUTH IS SUSTAINING FRESH
TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES OVER THE TROPICAL WATERS WEST OF ABOUT
124W, WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 8 TO 12 FT RANGE. A SURFACE TROUGH
THAT IS ANALYZED ALONG 127W FROM 06N TO 10N HAS HELPED TO
SUSTAIN THE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF THE ITCZ AND NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST
OF 120W.
FOR THE FORECAST, MOSTLY FRESH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AND SEAS
TO 11 FT WILL BE PRESENT WEST OF ABOUT 123W THROUGH THU AS THE
GRADIENT IN PLACE FLUCTUATES LITTLE. THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD THOUGH THU WHILE LOSING ITS IDENTITY. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH 30N140W TONIGHT, PRECEDED BY
FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE LEADING EDGE OF A LARGE SET
OF NORTHWEST SWELL IS FORECAST TO OUTRUN THE FRONT REACHING FROM
NEAR 30N132W TO 27N140W LATE TONIGHT. BY THU SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9
TO 14 FT IN THE AREA OF THESE WINDS. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WILL SKIRT THE NORTHWEST FORECAST WATERS FRI NIGHT PRECEDED BY
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND SEAS TO 19 FT. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MAY APPROACH 30N140W ON MON, PRECEDED BY FRESH TO STRONG
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS, AND LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE, HAVE THE
LEADING EDGE OF A LARGE SET OF NORTHWEST OUT AHEAD OF IT. LATEST
WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS DEPICTS SEAS TO ABOUT 20 FT NEAR
30N AND WEST OF 134W ON MON.
CHAN
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