467
AXPZ20 KNHC 191545
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU DEC 19 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT NORTHEASTERN MEXICO IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL FORCE GALE-FORCE GAP WINDS IN THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH EARLY SUN MORNING. SEAS DURING THIS TIME
WILL PEAK AROUND 12 FT. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST SUN,
ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH TO BELOW GALE FORCE FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE
WATERS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES_EASTPAC.PHP FOR MORE
DETAILS.
SIGNIFICANT N SWELL NW WATERS: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OF THE
30N140W TODAY, BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND INCREASING SEAS DUE TO
NORTHERLY SWELL. SEAS OF 12 TO 18 FT WILL REACH WATERS N OF 25N
AND W OF 135W FRI, THEN INCREASE AND EXPAND FURTHER DURING THE
WEEKEND, IMPACTING MOST WATERS N OF 10N AND W OF 120W BY SUN. AN
ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT NW SWELL WILL BRING SIMILARLY
VERY ROUGH SEAS TO THE SAME AREA FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A MONSOON TROUGH CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE WEST COAST OF
CENTRAL COSTA RICA NEAR 09N85W TO 04N94W. AN ITCZ CONTINUES
WESTWARD FROM 04N94W TO 05N122W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS SEEN SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 05N TO 07N
BETWEEN 77W AND 85W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOUT A GALE WARNING AT
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR
33N127W TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS IS SUPPORTING LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT IN DECAYING NW SWELL ACROSS
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS. GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS
WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS ARE PRESENT AT THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
GENTLE NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS AT 4 TO 6 FT IN MIXED MODERATE
SWELL EXIST AT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICO OFFSHORE WATERS,
EXCEPT AT THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. OUTSIDE THE GALE WARNING AREA,
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WITH 6 TO TO 10 FT ARE EVIDENT
OFFSHORE FROM OAXACA STATE IN SOUTHERN MEXICO.
FOR THE FORECAST, STRONG TO GALE-FORCE GAP WINDS AND VERY ROUGH
SEAS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY SUN MORNING, THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SUN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AT THE OFFSHORE WATERS WEST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN MODERATE AND FRESH THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS IN
THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL DIMINISH TO BETWEEN GENTLE
AND MODERATE BY THU. MODERATE NW SWELL WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
WILL BECOME LARGE LATE THIS WEEKEND.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
CAUSING FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT IN THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION. MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS WITH SEAS AT 3
TO 5 FT EXIST AT THE GULF OF PANAMA. ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH AND BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS, GENTLE TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS IN MODERATE S TO SW
SWELL PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE
PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, BEFORE DECREASING EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH MON. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS BETWEEN
ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI, THEN
MAINLY GENTLE AFTERWARD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOUT VERY ROUGH SEAS
EXPECTED OVER NW WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CONVERGENT TRADES ARE TRIGGERING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
SOUTH OF THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 105W
AND 113W. MODERATE TO FRESH SW WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FT SEAS ARE
EVIDENT TO THE EAST OF A COLD FRONT NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
30N134W TO 26N140W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 33N127W TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS IS
SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS NORTH OF 18N AND
WEST OF 120W. SEAS IN THIS AREA RANGE FROM 6 TO 8 FT IN MODERATE
TO LARGE NW SWELL. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND THE ITCZ
TO THE SOUTH IS SUSTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WITH 7 TO 9
FT SEAS OVER THE TROPICAL WATERS FROM THE ITCZ TO 18N AND WEST OF
ABOUT 110W. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES AND SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT IN
MIXED MODERATE SWELLS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF THE ITCZ WEST
OF 92W.
FOR THE FORECAST, NE WINDS FROM THE ITCZ AND 18N, WEST OF 128W
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME FRESH TO STRONG BY SUN. LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
KONARIK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page