708
AXPZ20 KNHC 192124
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU DEC 19 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WILL
FORCE GALE-FORCE GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH
SAT NIGHT. SEAS DURING THIS TIME WILL PEAK AT 12 TO 14 FT. THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST SUN, ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH TO
BELOW GALE FORCE FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES_EASTPAC.PHP FOR MORE
DETAILS.
SIGNIFICANT NW SWELL: A COMPLEX AND POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE WELL N
OF THE AREA WILL GENERATE AT LEAST A COUPLE ROUNDS OF LARGE NW
SWELL THAT WILL SPILL INTO THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
FIRST SIGNIFICANT SET IS MOVING SE FROM 30N135W TODAY, AND WILL
LEAD TO SEAS OF 12 TO 20 FT N OF 25N AND W OF 135W FRI, WITH SEAS
ABOVE 12 FT N OF 15N AND W OF 125W SAT. SEAS MAY PEAK NEAR 25 FT
AROUND 30N140W FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THESE VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO PROPAGATE INTO COASTAL WATERS W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK, AS THE SECOND ROUGH OF REINFORCING NW
SWELL SWEEPS INTO THE NW WATERS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH
SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A MONSOON TROUGH CURVES FROM THE COSTA RICA-PANAMA BORDER NEAR
09N82W TO 04N94W. AN ITCZ CONTINUES WESTWARD FROM 04N94W TO
05N112W AND FROM 05N122W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 07N E OF 87W AND FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN
104W AND 109W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON A
GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
ASIDE FROM THE GALE WARNING AREA, WEAK SURFACE RIDGE FROM HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED N OF THE REGION IS BEING DISRUPTED BY A MODEST
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S ALONG 120W TO AROUND 25N. THE RESULT
IS AN OVERALL RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS DOMINATING THE OFFSHORE WATERS, EXCEPT FOR SOME LOCALLY
MODERATE NW WINDS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA,
DUE TO A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG MAINLAND MEXICO'S WEST COAST.
SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT FOR OFFSHORE WATERS, LOCALLY 8 FT W OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA, WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, EXCEPT
IN THE NORTHERN GULF WHERE SEAS ARE LESS THAN 2 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, OTHER THAN THE AFOREMENTIONED GALES IN THE
TEHUANTEPEC REGION, LIGHT TO GENTLE MAINLY N WINDS WILL INCREASE
SOME THIS WEEKEND AS A NE PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS
TOWARD THE REGION. SIGNIFICANT NW SWELL WILL REACH WATERS
OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE SAT NIGHT, THEN EXPAND TO
EVENTUALLY IMPACT MOST WATERS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS CAUSING
FRESH TO STRONG NE GAP WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO REGION. MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS WITH SEAS AT 3 TO 5 FT
EXIST AT THE GULF OF PANAMA. SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, GENTLE
TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS IN MODERATE S TO
SW SWELL PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARD THE NW CARIBBEAN
WILL LEAD TO FRESH TO STRONG NE GAP WINDS IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION
INTO MON MORNING, BEFORE THE HIGH WEAKENS AND CONDITIONS
IMPROVE. GALES N OF THE AREA WILL INDUCE NORTHERLY SWELL AND
SUBSEQUENT ROUGH SEAS WILL OFFSHORE GUATEMALA INTO THE WEEKEND.
ELSEWHERE, WINDS WILL BE MODERATE OR LESS WITH MODERATE SEAS INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOUT VERY ROUGH SEAS
EXPECTED OVER NW WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM AROUND 30N133W TO 25N140W. BEHIND
THE FRONT, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG W WINDS ARE OCCURRING, WITH
MODERATE S TO SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT, EXTENDING TO ABOUT
22N AND 130W. TO THE EAST, A MODEST SURFACE RIDGE IS INDUCING
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS N OF 19N, WHERE SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT. S OF
19N TO THE ITCZ, A BELT OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES
EXIST, WITH SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT. S OF THE ITCZ, 5 TO 5 FT SEAS
DOMINATE WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE SE WINDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR
DETAILS ON A BROAD AREA OF EXPANDING VERY ROUGH SEAS. BY THE
START OF NEXT WEEK, SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER WILL ENCOMPASS MOST
WATERS W OF 110W AS LARGE TO VERY LARGE NW SWELL DOMINATES. NE TO
E TRADEWINDS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND 18N, ESPECIALLY W OF 127W, WILL
INCREASE TO FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG STARTING SUN. LITTLE CHANGE
IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
KONARIK
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