242
AXPZ20 KNHC 200147
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI DEC 20 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0000 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WILL
CONTINUE GALE-FORCE GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH
SUN MORNING. SEAS DURING THIS TIME WILL PEAK AT 12 TO 16 FT. THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST SUN, ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH TO
BELOW GALE FORCE FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES_EASTPAC.PHP FOR MORE
DETAILS.
SIGNIFICANT NW SWELL: A COMPLEX AND POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE WELL N
OF THE AREA WILL GENERATE AT LEAST A COUPLE ROUNDS OF LARGE NW
SWELL THAT WILL SPILL INTO THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
FIRST SIGNIFICANT SET IS MOVING SE OF 30N140W NOW, AND WILL LEAD
TO SEAS OF 12 TO 20 FT N OF 25N AND W OF 135W FRI, WITH SEAS
ABOVE 12 FT N OF 15N AND W OF 125W SAT. SEAS MAY PEAK NEAR 25 FT
AROUND 30N140W FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THESE VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO PROPAGATE INTO COASTAL WATERS W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS THE SECOND
ROUND OF REINFORCING NW SWELL SWEEPS INTO THE NW WATERS.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A MONSOON TROUGH CURVES FROM THE COAST OF COSTA RICA NEAR
10N83.5W TO 05N95W. AN ITCZ CONTINUES WESTWARD FROM 05N95W TO
07N107W TO 06N120W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 77W AND 89W, FROM 05.5N TO 08N BETWEEN
103W AND 108.5W, AND FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 126W AND 136W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON A
GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, AND ON A SIGNIFICANT NW
SWELL EVENT FORECAST TO IMPACT THE WATERS OFFSHORE BAJA
CALIFORNIA.
ASIDE FROM THE GALE WARNING AREA, WEAK SURFACE RIDGE FROM HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED N OF THE REGION IS BEING DISRUPTED BY A MODEST
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S ALONG 120W TO AROUND 25N. THE RESULT
IS AN OVERALL RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS DOMINATING THE OFFSHORE WATERS, EXCEPT FOR SOME LOCALLY
MODERATE NW WINDS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA,
DUE TO A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG MAINLAND MEXICO'S WEST COAST.
SEAS ARE 4 TO 7 FT FOR OFFSHORE WATERS, LOCALLY 8 FT W OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA, WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, EXCEPT
IN THE NORTHERN GULF WHERE SEAS ARE LESS THAN 2 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, OTHER THAN THE AFOREMENTIONED GALES IN THE
TEHUANTEPEC REGION AND SIGNIFICANT NW SWELL, LIGHT TO GENTLE
MAINLY N WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME THIS WEEKEND AS A NE PACIFIC
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS CAUSING
FRESH TO STRONG NE GAP WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT IN THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO REGION. MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS WITH SEAS AT 3 TO 5
FT EXIST AT THE GULF OF PANAMA. S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, GENTLE
TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS IN MODERATE S TO
SW SWELL PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARD THE NW CARIBBEAN
WILL LEAD TO FRESH TO STRONG NE GAP WINDS IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION
INTO EARLY TUE, BEFORE THE HIGH WEAKENS AND CONDITIONS IMPROVE.
GALES N OF THE AREA WILL INDUCE NORTHERLY SWELL AND SUBSEQUENT
ROUGH SEAS WILL OFFSHORE GUATEMALA INTO THE WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE,
WINDS WILL BE MODERATE OR LESS WITH MODERATE SEAS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOUT VERY ROUGH SEAS
EXPECTED OVER NW WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE FAR NW WATERS. BEHIND THE
FRONT, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE OCCURRING, WITH
MODERATE S TO SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT, EXTENDING TO ABOUT 25N
AND 131W. TO THE EAST, A MODEST SURFACE RIDGE IS INDUCING LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS N OF 19N, WHERE SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT. S OF 19N TO
THE ITCZ, A BELT OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES EXIST, WITH
SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT. S OF THE ITCZ, 5 TO 7 FT SEAS DOMINATE WITH
GENTLE TO MODERATE SE WINDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR
DETAILS ON A BROAD AREA OF EXPANDING VERY ROUGH SEAS. BY THE
START OF NEXT WEEK, SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER WILL ENCOMPASS MOST
WATERS W OF 110W AS LARGE TO VERY LARGE NW SWELL DOMINATES. NE TO
E TRADEWINDS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND 18N, ESPECIALLY W OF 127W, WILL
INCREASE TO FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG STARTING SUN. LITTLE CHANGE
IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
LEWITSKY
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