841
AXPZ20 KNHC 200729
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI DEC 20 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0700 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT EASTERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT GALE-FORCE GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
THROUGH SUN MORNING. SEAS DURING THIS TIME WILL PEAK AT 12 TO 18
FT. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST BY SUN AFTERNOON, ALLOWING
WINDS TO DIMINISH TO BELOW GALE FORCE FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL BE NEAR GALE SUN NIGHT INTO
EARLY MON. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE
WATERS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES_EASTPAC.PHP FOR MORE
DETAILS.
SIGNIFICANT NW SWELL: A COMPLEX AND POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA WILL GENERATE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LARGE NW SWELL
THAT WILL SPILL INTO THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST
SIGNIFICANT SET IS MOVING SE OF 30N140W NOW, AND WILL LEAD TO
SEAS OF 12 TO 20 FT WEST OF A LINE FROM 30N132W TO 23N140W EARLY
THIS EVENING, FROM WEST OF 30N124W TO 16N140W EARLY SAT EVENING,
THEN FROM WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR PUNTA EUGENIA TO 08N132W
EARLY MON EVENING. NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO BE REINFORCED INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL ACTUALLY PEAK AT AROUND 23 FT
NEAR 30N140W LATE TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A MONSOON TROUGH CURVES FROM THE COAST OF COSTA RICA NEAR 10N85W
TO 05N94W. AN ITCZ CONTINUES WESTWARD FROM 05N94W TO 06.5N110W,
THEN CONTINUES WEST OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 06N113W TO BEYOND
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN
77W AND 91W, FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 109W AND 113W NEAR THE
SURFACE TROUGH, AND FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 123W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON A
GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, AND ON A SIGNIFICANT NW
SWELL EVENT FORECAST TO IMPACT THE WATERS OFFSHORE BAJA
CALIFORNIA.
ASIDE FROM THE GALE WARNING AREA, WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE NEAR 26N120W TO ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL AWAY FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC
REGION, EXCEPT GENTLE TO MODERATE IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND NEARSHORE SW MEXICO. SEAS ARE 4 TO 7 FT
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS, LOCALLY 8 FT WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTE. SEAS ARE 2 TO 4 FT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, EXCEPT IN
THE NORTHERN GULF WHERE THEY ARE LESS THAN 2 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, OTHER THAN THE AFOREMENTIONED GALE WARNING IN
THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION AND SIGNIFICANT INCOMING NW SWELL, LIGHT
TO GENTLE MAINLY N WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME THIS WEEKEND AS A NE
PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION, PULSING TO
MODERATE TO FRESH AT TIMES FROM OFFSHORE CABO SAN LAZARO
NORTHWARD.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS CAUSING
FRESH TO STRONG NE GAP WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT IN THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO REGION. MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS WITH SEAS AT 3 TO 5
FT EXIST AT THE GULF OF PANAMA. SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH,
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS IN MODERATE
S TO SW SWELL PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARD THE NW CARIBBEAN
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PULSING FRESH TO STRONG NE GAP WINDS IN
THE PAPAGAYO REGION INTO EARLY TUE, BEFORE THE HIGH WEAKENS AND
CONDITIONS IMPROVE SLIGHTLY. GALES NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL
SUPPORT NORTHERLY SWELL AND SUBSEQUENT ROUGH SEAS WELL OFFSHORE
GUATEMALA INTO THE WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE, WINDS WILL BE MODERATE OR
LESS, LOCALLY MODERATE TO FRESH AT TIMES IN THE GULF OF PANAMA,
WITH MODERATE SEAS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOUT VERY ROUGH SEAS
EXPECTED OVER NW WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE FAR NW WATERS FROM 30N139W TO
29N140W. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS ARE
OCCURRING PER RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA, WITH MODERATE
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. TO THE EAST, A PAIR OF
HIGHS ARE PRESENT, ONE NEAR 26N120W AT 1023 MB AND THE OTHER
NEAR 21.5N130W AT 1020 MB. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED
BETWEEN THE HIGHS FROM 30N124W TO 21N129W. GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE FOUND ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS NORTH OF 20N AND
AWAY FROM THE COLD FRONT. A BELT OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES IS
NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO AROUND 12N, LOCALLY STRONG WEST OF 130W PER
RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA. SEAS ARE 7 TO 10 FT ACROSS THE
BELT OF TRADES. WINDS ARE MAINLY MODERATE OR WEAKER ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE OPEN WATERS, WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT IN MAINLY
NORTHERLY SWELLS.
FOR THE FORECAST, OTHER THAN THE SERIES OF NW SWELL SETS AND VERY
ROUGH SEAS MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTIONS, LITTLE
CHANGE IN WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE
SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER WILL ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE WATERS WEST
OF 110W BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND THEN WEST OF 100W BY MID-WEEK.
LEWITSKY
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