865
AXPZ20 KNHC 201451
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI DEC 20 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1430 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
ADJACENT EASTERN MEXICO AND LOWER PRESSURE WITHIN THE EPAC
MONSOON TROUGH WILL SUPPORT GALE- FORCE GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH SUN MORNING. SEAS DURING THIS TIME WILL PEAK
AT 12 TO 18 FT. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST BY SUN
AFTERNOON, WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENING. THIS WILL
DIMINISH WINDS BELOW GALE FORCE FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL BE NEAR GALE FORCE SUN NIGHT INTO
EARLY MON. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE
WATERS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES_EASTPAC.PHP FOR MORE
DETAILS.
SIGNIFICANT NW SWELL: A COMPLEX AND POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA WILL GENERATE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LARGE NW SWELL
THAT WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
FIRST SIGNIFICANT SET WILL LEAD TO SEAS OF 12 TO 20 FT WEST OF A
LINE FROM 30N132W TO 23N140W EARLY THIS EVENING, PEAK AT AROUND
23 FT NEAR 30N140W LATE TONIGHT. SEAS GREATER THAN 12 FT WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD SE, COVERING THE WATERS WEST OF 30N124W TO
16N140W EARLY SAT EVENING, THEN FROM WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR
PUNTA EUGENIA TO 08N132W EARLY MON EVENING. NW SWELL WILL BE
REINFORCED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 06N98W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 08N E OF 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 120W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON A
GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, AND ON A SIGNIFICANT NW
SWELL EVENT THAT WILL IMPACT THE WATERS OFFSHORE BAJA
CALIFORNIA.
ASIDE FROM THE GALE WARNING AREA, HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE
WATERS W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND A TROUGH OVER WESTERN
MEXICO IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS OVER THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE OVER
THE OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO. SEAS ARE IN THE 5-7 FT OVER THE OPEN
WATERS OFF MEXICO, AND 1-3 FT OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, OTHER THAN THE AFOREMENTIONED GALE WARNING IN
THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION AND SIGNIFICANT INCOMING NW SWELL, LIGHT
TO GENTLE MAINLY N WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THIS WEEKEND AS
A NE PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION. WIND
WILL PULSE TO MODERATE TO FRESH AT TIMES FROM OFFSHORE CABO SAN
LAZARO NORTHWARD.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE EPAC MONSOON TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NE GAP WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT IN
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH,
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS IN MODERATE
S TO SW SWELL PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARD THE NW CARIBBEAN
WILL SUPPORT PULSING FRESH TO STRONG NE GAP WINDS IN THE
PAPAGAYO REGION INTO EARLY TUE, BEFORE THE HIGH WEAKENS AND
CONDITIONS IMPROVE. GALES NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SUPPORT
NORTHERLY SWELL AND ROUGH SEAS WELL OFFSHORE GUATEMALA INTO THE
WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE, WINDS WILL BE MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH
MODERATE SEAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, PULSING TO MODERATE TO
FRESH IN THE GULF OF PANAMA AT TIMES.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOUT VERY ROUGH SEAS
EXPECTED OVER NW WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS OVER THE FAR NW WATERS. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS ARE NOTED, WITH MODERATE
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. TO THE EAST, A 1021 MB
HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 23N120W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED
FROM 30N124W TO 22N130W. LIGHT WINDS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAIL NORTH OF THE
ITCZ TO AROUND 15N. SEAS ARE 7 TO 10 FT ACROSS THIS AREA OF
TRADES. WINDS ARE MAINLY MODERATE OR WEAKER ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE OPEN WATERS, WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT IN MAINLY NORTHERLY
SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, OTHER THAN THE NW SWELL AND VERY ROUGH SEAS
MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTIONS, LITTLE CHANGE IN
WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE SEAS OF 8
FT OR GREATER WILL COVER MOST OF THE WATERS WEST OF 110W BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND THEN WEST OF 100W BY MID-WEEK.
AL
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