221
AXPZ20 KNHC 202004
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI DEC 20 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2000 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT
EASTERN MEXICO AND LOWER PRESSURE WITHIN THE EPAC MONSOON TROUGH
WILL SUPPORT GALE- FORCE GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
THROUGH SUN MORNING. SEAS DURING THIS TIME WILL PEAK AT 12 TO 18
FT. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST BY SUN AFTERNOON, WITH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENING. THIS WILL DIMINISH WINDS BELOW GALE
FORCE FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL
BE NEAR GALE FORCE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES_EASTPAC.PHP FOR MORE
DETAILS.
SIGNIFICANT NW SWELL: A COMPLEX AND POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA WILL GENERATE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LARGE NW SWELL
THAT WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
FIRST SIGNIFICANT SET WILL LEAD TO SEAS OF 12 TO 20 FT WEST OF A
LINE FROM 30N132W TO 23N140W EARLY THIS EVENING, PEAKING AT
AROUND 23 FT NEAR 30N140W LATE TONIGHT. SEAS GREATER THAN 12 FT
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SE, COVERING THE WATERS WEST OF 30N124W
TO 16N140W EARLY SAT EVENING, THEN FROM WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
NEAR PUNTA EUGENIA TO 08N132W EARLY MON EVENING. NW SWELL WILL BE
REINFORCED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 06N97W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 06N97W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 08N E OF 82W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN
122W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON A
GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, AND ON A SIGNIFICANT NW
SWELL EVENT THAT WILL IMPACT THE WATERS OFFSHORE BAJA
CALIFORNIA.
ASIDE FROM THE GALE WARNING AREA, HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE
WATERS W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND A TROUGH OVER WESTERN
MEXICO IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS OVER THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE OVER
THE OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO. SEAS ARE IN THE 5-7 FT OVER THE OPEN
WATERS OFF MEXICO, AND 1-3 FT OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, OTHER THAN THE AFOREMENTIONED GALE WARNING IN
THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION AND SIGNIFICANT INCOMING NW SWELL, LIGHT
TO GENTLE MAINLY N WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THIS WEEKEND AS
A NE PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION. WIND
WILL PULSE TO MODERATE TO FRESH AT TIMES FROM OFFSHORE CABO SAN
LAZARO NORTHWARD.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE EPAC MONSOON TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NE GAP WINDS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 6 FT IN
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH,
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS IN MODERATE
S TO SW SWELL PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING TOWARD THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
MONSOON TROUGH WILL SUPPORT PULSING FRESH TO STRONG NE GAP WINDS
IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION INTO EARLY TUE. GALES IN THE TEHUANTEPEC
REGION WILL SUPPORT NORTHERLY SWELL AND ROUGH SEAS WELL OFFSHORE
GUATEMALA INTO THE WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE, WINDS WILL BE MODERATE OR
WEAKER WITH MODERATE SEAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, PULSING TO
MODERATE TO FRESH IN THE GULF OF PANAMA AT TIMES.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOUT VERY ROUGH SEAS
EXPECTED OVER NW WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS OVER THE FAR NW WATERS. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS ARE NOTED, WITH FRESH WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT. TO THE EAST, A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
28N118W. LIGHT WINDS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS N
OF 20N, WITH SEAS OF 6-8 FT. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES
PREVAIL ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ, S OF 15N, WHERE SEAS ARE IN
THE 6 TO 9 FT RANGE.
FOR THE FORECAST, OTHER THAN THE NW SWELL AND VERY ROUGH SEAS
MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTIONS, LITTLE CHANGE IN
WINDS ARE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE SEAS OF 8 FT
OR GREATER WILL COVER MOST OF THE WATERS WEST OF 110W BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK, AND THEN WEST OF 100W BY MID-WEEK.
AL
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