072
AXPZ20 KNHC 210116
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT DEC 21 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0040 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT
EASTERN MEXICO AND LOWER PRESSURE WITHIN THE EPAC MONSOON TROUGH
WILL SUPPORT CONTINUING GALE-FORCE GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH SUN NIGHT. SEAS DURING THIS TIME WILL PEAK
AT 12 TO 18 FT. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST BY EARLY MON,
WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENING. THIS WILL DIMINISH WINDS
BELOW GALE FORCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH
SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES_EASTPAC.PHP FOR MORE
DETAILS.
SIGNIFICANT NW SWELL: A COMPLEX AND POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA WILL GENERATE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LARGE NW SWELL
THAT WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT SET WILL LEAD TO SEAS OF 12 TO
20 FT WEST OF A LINE FROM 30N132W TO 23N140W EARLY THIS EVENING,
PEAKING AT AROUND 23 FT NEAR 30N140W LATE TONIGHT. SEAS GREATER
THAN 12 FT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SE, COVERING THE WATERS WEST
OF 30N124W TO 16N140W EARLY SAT EVENING, THEN FROM WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NEAR PUNTA EUGENIA TO 08N132W EARLY MON EVENING. NW
SWELL WILL BE REINFORCED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN
78W AND 83W, AND FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 134W AND 138W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON A
GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, AND ON A SIGNIFICANT NW
SWELL EVENT THAT WILL IMPACT THE WATERS OFFSHORE BAJA
CALIFORNIA.
ASIDE FROM THE GALE WARNING AREA, HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE
WATERS OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND A TROUGH OVER WESTERN
MEXICO IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS OVER THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR CABO CORRIENTES. LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF
MEXICO. SEAS ARE IN THE 5 TO7 FT OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF
MEXICO, AND 1 TO 3 FT OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, OTHER THAN THE AFOREMENTIONED GALE WARNING IN
THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION AND SIGNIFICANT INCOMING NW SWELL, GENTLE
TO MODERATE MAINLY N WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THIS WEEKEND
AS A NE PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION.
WINDS WILL PULSE TO MODERATE TO FRESH AT TIMES OFFSHORE BAJA
CALIFORNIA.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE EPAC MONSOON TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NE GAP WINDS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 6 FT IN
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, EXCEPT WELL OFFSHORE GUATEMALA
WHERE THEY ARE MODERATE TO FRESH DOWNWIND FROM A GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT. SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, GENTLE
TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS IN MODERATE S TO
SW SWELL PREVAIL, MIXED WITH SOME NW SWELL FROM THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING TOWARD THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH WILL SUPPORT PULSING FRESH TO STRONG NE
GAP WINDS IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION INTO EARLY WED. GALES IN THE
TEHUANTEPEC REGION WILL SUPPORT NORTHERLY SWELL AND ROUGH SEAS
WELL OFFSHORE GUATEMALA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE, WINDS
WILL BE MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH MODERATE SEAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK, PULSING TO MODERATE TO FRESH IN THE GULF OF PANAMA AT
TIMES. SEAS MAY BUILD MID-WEEK IN NW SWELL.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOUT VERY ROUGH SEAS
EXPECTED OVER NW WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NW OF THE AREA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, FRESH
TO STRONG SW WINDS ARE NOTED NORTH OF ABOUT 28N BETWEEN 132W AND
140W. A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 24N124W. LIGHT WINDS ARE
FOUND ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS NORTH OF 20N, WITH SEAS
OF 6 TO 8 FT. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES PREVAIL ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE ITCZ, SOUTH OF 15N, WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 5 TO 9 FT
RANGE.
FOR THE FORECAST, OTHER THAN THE NW SWELL AND VERY ROUGH SEAS
MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTIONS, LITTLE CHANGE IN
WINDS ARE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE SEAS OF 8 FT
OR GREATER WILL COVER MOST OF THE WATERS WEST OF 110W BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK, AND THEN WEST OF 100W BY MID-WEEK.
LEWITSKY
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