063
AXPZ20 KNHC 210713
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT DEC 21 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0600 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT
EASTERN MEXICO AND LOWER PRESSURE WITHIN THE EPAC MONSOON TROUGH
WILL SUPPORT CONTINUING GALE-FORCE GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH SUN NIGHT. A RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS
CONFIRMED GALE-FORCE WINDS. SEAS DURING THE WARNING EVENT WILL
PEAK AT 12 TO 18 FT. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST BY EARLY
MON, WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
WINDS BELOW GALE FORCE EARLY MON. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH
SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES_EASTPAC.PHP FOR MORE
DETAILS.
SIGNIFICANT NW SWELL: A COMPLEX AND POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE NORTH
OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LARGE NW
SWELL THAT WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT SET WILL LEAD TO SEAS OF
12 TO 20 FT WEST OF A LINE FROM 30N125W TO 16N140W EARLY THIS
EVENING, COVERING THE WATERS FROM WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR
PUNTA EUGENIA TO 08N133W EARLY MON EVENING WHEN THE NEXT SET
ARRIVES WITH PEAK SEAS OF 21 FT NEAR 30N140W. NW SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO BE REINFORCED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. PLEASE
SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83.5W TO 05.5N93.5W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05.5N93.5W TO 08N114W TO BEYOND 08N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN
77W AND 83W, AND FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 89W AND 100W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON A
GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, AND ON A SIGNIFICANT NW
SWELL EVENT THAT WILL IMPACT THE WATERS OFFSHORE BAJA
CALIFORNIA.
ASIDE FROM THE GALE WARNING AREA, HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE
WATERS OFFSHORE WATERS OF MEXICO WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS.
SEAS ARE IN THE 5 TO 7 FT OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO, AND 1
TO 3 FT OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, OTHER THAN THE AFOREMENTIONED GALE WARNING IN
THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION AND SIGNIFICANT INCOMING NW SWELL, GENTLE
TO MODERATE MAINLY N WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THIS WEEKEND
AS A NE PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION, AND
WINDS WILL PULSE TO MODERATE TO FRESH AT TIMES OFFSHORE BAJA
CALIFORNIA.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE EPAC MONSOON TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NE GAP WINDS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 6 FT IN
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, EXCEPT WELL OFFSHORE GUATEMALA
WHERE THEY ARE MODERATE TO FRESH DOWNWIND FROM A GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT. SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, GENTLE
TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS IN MODERATE S TO
SW SWELL PREVAIL, MIXED WITH SOME NW SWELL FROM THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING TOWARD THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH WILL SUPPORT PULSING FRESH TO STRONG NE
GAP WINDS IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION INTO EARLY WED. GALES IN THE
TEHUANTEPEC REGION WILL SUPPORT NORTHERLY SWELL AND ROUGH SEAS
WELL OFFSHORE GUATEMALA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE, WINDS
WILL BE MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH MODERATE SEAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK, PULSING TO MODERATE TO FRESH IN THE GULF OF PANAMA AT
TIMES. SEAS MAY BUILD MID-WEEK IN NW SWELL.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOUT VERY ROUGH SEAS
EXPECTED OVER NW WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SLIPPED INTO THE FAR NW WATERS, AND AHEAD
OF IT MODERATE TO FRESH SW WINDS ARE PRESENT NORTH OF ABOUT 28N
BETWEEN 130W AND 136W. HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS NORTH OF 22N ACCOMPANIED BY
SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ, WITH SEAS IN THE 6 TO 9 FT
RANGE, EXCEPT 5 TO 7 FT EAST OF 110W.
FOR THE FORECAST, OTHER THAN THE NW SWELL AND VERY ROUGH SEAS
MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTIONS, LITTLE CHANGE IN
WINDS ARE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE SEAS OF 8 FT
OR GREATER WILL COVER MOST OF THE WATERS WEST OF 110W BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK, AND THEN WEST OF 100W BY MID-WEEK.
LEWITSKY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page