649
AXPZ20 KNHC 212015
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT DEC 21 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2000 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MEXICO AND LOW PRESSURE WITHIN THE
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH WILL SUPPORT GALE-FORCE GAP
WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH SUN NIGHT. SEAS DURING
THE WARNING EVENT WILL PEAK AT 12 TO 14 FT. THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT EAST BY EARLY MON, WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOOSENING. THIS WILL DIMINISH WINDS BELOW GALE FORCE EARLY MON.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES_EASTPAC.PHP FOR MORE
DETAILS.
SIGNIFICANT NW SWELL: A COMPLEX AND POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE NORTH
OF THE AREA WILL GENERATE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LARGE NW SWELL THAT
WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
AFTERNOON, SEAS GREATER THAN 12 FT COVER THE WATERS NW OF A LINE
FROM 30N128W TO 18N140W, WITH SEAS PEAKING IN EXCESS OF 20 FT
OVER THE FAR NW WATERS. THE ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL SPREAD
SE, COVERING THE WATERS FROM WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR PUNTA
EUGENIA TO 08N133W EARLY MON EVENING WHEN A REINFORCING SET OF NW
SWELL ARRIVES WITH PEAK SEAS OF 21 FT NEAR 30N140W. NW SWELL
WILL CONTINUE TO BE REINFORCED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 07N103W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 07N103W TO 08N115W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 09N E OF 81W, AND FROM
04N TO 07N BETWEEN 92W AND 102W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON A
GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, AND ON A SIGNIFICANT NW
SWELL EVENT THAT WILL IMPACT THE WATERS OFFSHORE BAJA
CALIFORNIA.
ASIDE FROM THE GALE WARNING AREA, HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE
WATERS WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND A TROUGH OVER
MEXICO IS SUPPORTING WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 5 TO 7 FT OVER THE OPEN
WATERS OFF MEXICO, AND 1 TO 3 FT OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, OTHER THAN THE AFOREMENTIONED GALE WARNING IN
THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION AND SIGNIFICANT NW SWELL, GENTLE TO
MODERATE MAINLY N WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THIS WEEKEND AS A
NE PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION, AND
WINDS WILL PULSE TO MODERATE TO FRESH AT TIMES OFFSHORE BAJA
CALIFORNIA.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE EPAC MONSOON TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NE GAP WINDS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT IN
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, EXCEPT WELL OFFSHORE GUATEMALA
WHERE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE DOWNWIND FROM A GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT. SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, GENTLE
TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS IN MODERATE S TO
SW SWELL PREVAIL, MIXED WITH NW SWELL FROM THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING TOWARD THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH WILL SUPPORT PULSING FRESH TO STRONG NE
GAP WINDS IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION INTO EARLY WED. GALES IN THE
TEHUANTEPEC REGION WILL SUPPORT NORTHERLY SWELL AND ROUGH SEAS
WELL OFFSHORE GUATEMALA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE, WINDS
WILL BE MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH MODERATE SEAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK, PULSING TO MODERATE TO FRESH IN THE GULF OF PANAMA AT
TIMES. SEAS MAY BUILD MID-WEEK IN NW SWELL.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOUT VERY ROUGH SEAS
EXPECTED OVER NW WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS OVER THE FAR NW WATERS FROM 30N132W TO
28N140W. HIGH PRESSURE OF 1025 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 26N124W. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS SUPPORTING MODERATE
SW WINDS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
ARE IN THE VICINITY OF THE HIGH CENTER. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE N OF 20N. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS N OF THE ITCZ TO 20N
AND W OF 118W. S OF THE ITCZ, GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL.
ASIDE FROM THE LARGE SWELL DISCUSSED ABOVE, SEAS ARE MAINLY IN
THE 6-9 FT RANGE.
FOR THE FORECAST, OTHER THAN THE NW SWELL AND VERY ROUGH SEAS
MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTIONS, LITTLE CHANGE IN
WINDS ARE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE SEAS OF 8 FT
OR GREATER WILL COVER MOST OF THE WATERS WEST OF 110W BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK, AND THEN WEST OF 100W BY MID-WEEK.
AL
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