755
AXPZ20 KNHC 220128
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN DEC 22 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0050 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MEXICO AND LOW PRESSURE WITHIN THE
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH WILL SUPPORT GALE-FORCE GAP
WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH SUN NIGHT. SEAS DURING
THE WARNING EVENT WILL PEAK AT 12 TO 16 FT. THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT EAST BY EARLY MON, WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOOSENING. THIS WILL DIMINISH WINDS BELOW GALE FORCE EARLY MON
WITH FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY PULSES THEREAFTER INTO MID-WEEK.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES_EASTPAC.PHP FOR MORE
DETAILS.
SIGNIFICANT NW SWELL: A COMPLEX AND POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE NORTH
OF THE AREA WILL GENERATE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LARGE NW SWELL THAT
WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS EVENING,
SEAS GREATER THAN 12 FT COVER THE WATERS NW OF A LINE FROM
30N125W TO 15N138W, WITH SEAS PEAKING NEAR 20 FT OVER CLOSE
TO 30N133W. THE ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
SE, COVERING THE WATERS FROM WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR PUNTA
EUGENIA TO 08N133W EARLY MON EVENING WHEN A REINFORCING SET OF NW
SWELL ARRIVES WITH PEAK SEAS OF 21 FT NEAR 30N140W. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09.5N84.5W TO 05.5N106W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05.5N106W TO 07N117W TO BEYOND 05.5N140W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 09N
BETWEEN 79W AND 102W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON A
GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, AND SIGNIFICANT NW
SWELLS THAT WILL IMPACT THE WATERS OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
ASIDE FROM THE GALE WARNING AREA, HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE
WATERS WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND A TROUGH OVER
MEXICO IS SUPPORTING WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST WATERS, EXCEPT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH OFFSHORE
BAJA CALIFORNIA. SEAS ARE IN THE 5 TO 7 FT OVER THE OPEN WATERS
OFF MEXICO, AND 1 TO 3 FT OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, OTHER THAN THE AFOREMENTIONED GALE WARNING IN
THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION AND SIGNIFICANT NW SWELL, GENTLE TO MODERATE
MAINLY N WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THIS WEEKEND AS A NE
PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION. WINDS WILL
PULSE TO MODERATE TO FRESH AT TIMES OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA,
THEN FRESH TO STRONG FROM CABO SAN LAZARO NORTHWARD STARTING WED
NIGHT.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE EPAC MONSOON TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NE GAP WINDS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT IN
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, EXCEPT WELL OFFSHORE GUATEMALA
WHERE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE DOWNWIND FROM A GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT, WITH SIMILAR WINDS NEAR THE GULF OF
FONSECA. SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, GENTLE TO MODERATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND 3 TO 5 FT SEAS IN MODERATE S TO SW SWELL
PREVAIL, MIXED WITH NW SWELL FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP
WIND EVENT. ACTIVE CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM OFFSHORE COLOMBIA
AND PANAMA TO COSTA RICA AS DESCRIBED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
SECTION ABOVE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC MONSOON
TROUGH WILL SUPPORT PULSING FRESH TO STRONG NE GAP WINDS IN THE
PAPAGAYO REGION INTO EARLY WED, THEN MODERATE TO FRESH
THEREAFTER. GALES IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION WILL SUPPORT
NORTHERLY SWELL AND ROUGH SEAS WELL OFFSHORE GUATEMALA THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE, WINDS WILL BE MODERATE
OR WEAKER WITH MODERATE SEAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, PULSING TO
MODERATE TO FRESH IN THE GULF OF PANAMA AT TIMES. SEAS MAY BUILD
MID-WEEK IN NW SWELL.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOUT LARGE NW SWELL
OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS JUST NW OF THE WATERS WITH FRESH TO STRONG
SW WINDS CREEPING JUST SE OF 30N140W. HIGH PRESSURE OF 1023 MB IS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER OUR AREA NEAR 27N128.5W. LIGHT TO GENTLE
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 22N AND EAST OF THE
FRONT TO 120W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO 22N AND
WEST OF 120W. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OPEN WATERS, INCLUDING
SOUTH OF THE ITCZ, GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL. ASIDE FROM
THE LARGE SWELL DISCUSSED ABOVE, SEAS ARE MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 8 FT
RANGE.
FOR THE FORECAST, OTHER THAN THE NW SWELLS DISCUSSED IN DETAIL
IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTIONS, LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS ARE
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WHILE A FRONT MANAGES TO
PUSH SE OF 30N140W BY EARLY MON, DECAYING OVER THE NORTHERN
WATERS INTO MID-WEEK. MEANWHILE, SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER WILL
COVER MOST OF THE WATERS WEST OF 110W BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND
THEN WEST OF 95W BY MID-WEEK.
LEWITSKY
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