777
AXPZ20 KNHC 090922 CCA
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN FEB 09 2025
CORRECTED REMAINDER OF THE AREA SECTION
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE OF 1008 MB
LOCATED OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N74W TO 09N87W TO 05N96W
TO 06N104W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO 08N112W TO
08N122W, AND RESUMES AT 07N127W TO BEYOND 05N104W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO ABOUT 12N
BETWEEN 111W AND 119W, AND ALSO WITHIN 60 NM SOUTH OF THE
TROUGH BETWEEN 88W AND 91W AND BETWEEN 97W AND 102W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
THE GRADIENT IN PLACE IS ALLOWING FOR FRESH TO STRONG N GAP
WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND DOWNWIND TO NEAR 14.5N AS
WERE NOTED IN A SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA PASS EARLIER TODAY.
SEAS ARE 5 TO 6 FT WITH THESE WINDS. MEANWHILE, STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OF 1035 MB LOCATED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA HAS AN
ASSOCIATED RIDGE THAT STRETCHES OVER THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE RELATED GRADIENT SUPPORTS FRESH TO
STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS MAINLY N OF PUNTA EUGENIA BETWEEN
BAJA CALIFORNIA AND 118W. SEAS ARE 7 TO 9 FT WITH THESE WINDS.
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE PRESENT BETWEEN
CABO SAN LAZARO AND PUNTA EUGENIA WITH SEAS IN THE 6 TO 8 FT
RANGE. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS, INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SEAS
ARE 1 TO 3 FT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND 3 TO 5 FT ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE GAP WIND EVENT IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION
WILL END EARLY ON SUN, THEN MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST TUE. FARTHER NORTH, THE STRENGTHENING
HIGH PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAINLY NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FT IN A LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST
SWELL NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA ON SUN. MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
THROUGH AT LEAST MON. WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
MODERATE TO FRESH SPEEDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA MON
NIGHT INTO TUE AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS THERE. LOOKING AHEAD,
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE MEXICAN
OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH TUE, EXCEPT FOR FRESH NORTHWEST WINDS AND
RESIDUAL NORTHWEST SWELL OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA, MAINLY NORTH OF
CABO SAN LAZARO.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF THE REGION CONTINUES TO ENHANCE
THE TRADE WIND FLOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA, RESULTING IN PERSISTENT GAP WINDS ACROSS THE
PAPAGAYO REGION, THE NICARAGUAN OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE GULF OF
FONSECA AND REACHING TO NEAR 90W. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS IN THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED TO FRESH TO
STRONG SPEEDS. THESE WINDS EXTEND WESTWARD TO NEAR 89W. SEAS
WITH THESE WINDS ARE ABOUT 5 TO 7 FT. MODERATE NORTH WINDS ARE IN
THE GULF OF PANAMA REACHING SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 06N. SEAS THERE
ARE ABOUT 3 TO 5 FT. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS DUE
TO A LONG-PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL ARE ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION AS A RIDGE WILL PERSIST N OF AREA. THIS
WILL SUPPORT PULSES OF FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHEAST TO
EAST GAP WINDS IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION MAINLY AT NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. PEAK SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 5 TO 8 FT DOWNSTREAM
EACH LATE NIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MODERATE NORTH WINDS
WILL PULSE TO LOCALLY FRESH EACH EVENING AND AT NIGHT IN THE GULF
OF PANAMA THROUGH MON NIGHT. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT
TO MODERATE SEAS IN LONG-PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE DURING THE PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
CORRECTED
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OF 1035 MB IS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR
41N136W. ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE FORECAST WATERS
NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND WEST OF 110W. THIS PATTERN IS SUPPORTING
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO
NEAR 15N AND WEST OF 115W. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS ARE 6 TO 8 FT
DUE TO NORTHEAST WIND WAVES COMBINING WITH LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST
SWELL. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE RIDGE ASSOCIATED TO THE STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE THAT IS NORTH OF THE AREA WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE
FORECAST WATERS NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND WEST OF ABOUT 110W. THE
ACTUAL HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD TO THE FAR NORTHWEST
FORECAST WATERS ON TUE. AS A RESULT, THE AERIAL EXTENT AND
STRENGTH OF THE TRADES WILL INCREASE WEST OF 120W THROUGH TUE.
PEAK SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 10 FT WITH THESE WINDS
WEST OF 130W ON TUE.
AGUIRRE
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