837
AXPZ20 KNHC 090944
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN FEB 09 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0930 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE OF 1008 MB
LOCATED OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N74W TO 09N84W TO 07N91W
TO 05N95W TO 05N102W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO
07N110W TO 08N116W TO 07N125W. IT RESUMES AT 07N129W TO BEYOND
05N104W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN NORTH OF THE ITCZ
TO NEAR 13N BETWEEN 110W AND 120W, AND ALSO WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 92W AND 88W AND WITHIN 60 NM NORTH OF
THE ITCZ WEST OF 129W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
THE PRESENT GRADIENT IS ALLOWING FOR FRESH TO STRONG NORTH GAP
WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION AS WAS
SUGGESTED BY AN OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA PASS. SEAS
ARE 4 TO 6 FT WITH THESE WINDS. MEANWHILE, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
OF 1036 MB LOCATED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA HAS AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE
THAT STRETCHES OVER THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. THE RELATED GRADIENT SUPPORTS FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS OVER THE OUTER WATERS OFF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE ALONG WITH SEAS OF ABOUT 7 TO 10 FT. MODERATE TO
FRESH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE PRESENT BETWEEN CABO SAN
LAZARO AND PUNTA EUGENIA WITH SEAS IN THE 6 TO 8 FT RANGE. LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF MEXICAN OFFSHORE
WATERS, INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SEAS ARE 1 TO 3 FT IN
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND 3 TO 5 FT ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRESH TO STRONG NORTH WINDS NEAR THE COAST
OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION WILL DIMINISH TO MODERATE
SPEEDS THIS MORNING, THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME
FRESH TO STRONG FROM THE NORTH ON MON, DIMINISHING TO GENTLE
SPEEDS TUE. OTHERWISE, STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF
THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
OVER THE OUTER WATERS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FT IN
NORTHWEST TO NORTH SWELL N OF PUNTA EUGENIA TODAY. MOSTLY LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA THROUGH AT LEAST MON. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
TO MOSTLY FRESH SPEEDS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA MON
NIGHT INTO TUE AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS THERE. LOOKING AHEAD,
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE MEXICAN
OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH TUE, EXCEPT FOR FRESH NORTHWEST WINDS AND
RESIDUAL NORTHWEST SWELL OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA, MAINLY NORTH OF
CABO SAN LAZARO.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF THE REGION CONTINUES TO SUSTAIN
THE TRADE WIND FLOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA, RESULTING IN PERSISTENT GAP WINDS ACROSS THE
PAPAGAYO REGION, THE NICARAGUAN OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE GULF OF
FONSECA AND REACHING TO NEAR 90W. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS ARE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION AS NOTED IN AN
OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA PASS OVER THAT PART OF THE
DISCUSSION DOMAIN. THESE WINDS EXTEND WESTWARD TO NEAR 89W. SEAS
WITH THESE WINDS ARE AROUND 4 TO 6 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTH
WINDS ARE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA REACHING SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 06N.
SEAS THERE ARE ABOUT 3 TO 5 FT. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS DUE TO A LONG-PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL ARE ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION AS A RIDGE PERSISTS NORTH OF THE AREA.
THIS WILL SUPPORT PULSES OF FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG
NORTHEAST TO EAST GAP WINDS IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION MAINLY AT
NIGHT THROUGH TUE. PEAK SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 5 TO 8 FT
DOWNSTREAM EACH LATE NIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MODERATE
NORTH WINDS WILL PULSE TO LOCALLY FRESH EACH EVENING AND AT NIGHT
IN THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH MON NIGHT. MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS IN LONG-PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL
WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE DURING THE PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OF 1036 MB IS LOCATED WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA NEAR 41N135W. ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE
FORECAST WATERS NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND WEST OF 110W. THIS PATTERN
IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO NEAR 15N AND WEST OF 120W. SEAS WITH THESE
WINDS ARE 7 TO 9 FT DUE TO NORTHEAST WIND WAVES COMBINING WITH
LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL. A TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG A
POSITION FROM NEAR 28N134W TO 23N136W AND TO 18N136.5W. THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SAME HIGH PRESSURE AND THE TROUGH IS
PRODUCING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG EAST WINDS NORTH OF 26N
BETWEEN 126W AND 134W, AND ALSO FROM 27N TO 29N BETWEEN 134W AND
140W. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS ARE 8 TO 10 FT. THE TIGHT GRADIENT IS
FORECAST TO RELAX THROUGH MON AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES,
AND WHILE THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHWARD AND IT TOO
WEAKENS. THIS PROCESS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WINDS OVER THIS PART OF
THE AREA TO DIMINISH TO MOSTLY FRESH SPEEDS AND BECOME NORTHEAST
TO EAST IN DIRECTION. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING SOUTHWARD,
THIS WILL CAUSE THE TRADE WINDS TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE, COVERING
THE WATERS WEST OF 120W THROUGH TUE AT MOSTLY STRONG SPEEDS. PEAK
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 10 FT WITH THESE WINDS WEST OF
130W ON TUE.
AGUIRRE
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