442
AXPZ20 KNHC 091558
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN FEB 9 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1550 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE OF 1010 MB
LOCATED OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 09N76W TO 09N88W TO 05N105W,
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ, WHICH THEN CONTINUES TO 06N113W.
THE ITCZ RESUMES AT 07N122W TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 00N TO 08N E OF 84W, FROM 05N TO 11N
BETWEEN 90W AND 106W, AND FROM 03N TO 10N W OF 128W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
NORTH GAP WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO MODERATE TO FRESH IN THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION AND SEAS ARE UP TO 5 FT WITH THESE WINDS.
MEANWHILE, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OF 1036 MB LOCATED WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA HAS AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE THAT STRETCHES OVER THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE RELATED GRADIENT
SUPPORTS MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST WINDS N OF PUNTA EUGENIA
ALONG WITH SEAS OF ABOUT 7 TO 8 FT. GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHWEST
TO NORTH WINDS ARE PRESENT ELSEWHERE ALONG THE REMAINDE BAJA
CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 4 TO 6 FT
RANGE. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS, INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SEAS
ARE 1 TO 3 FT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND 3 TO 4 FT ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE MODERATE TO FRESH NORTH WINDS NEAR THE
COAST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION WILL
ONCE AGAIN BECOME FRESH TO STRONG FROM THE NORTH ON MON,
DIMINISHING TO GENTLE SPEEDS TUE. MOSTLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH AT
LEAST MON. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO MOSTLY FRESH SPEEDS
IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA MON NIGHT INTO TUE AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS THERE. LOOKING AHEAD, WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH
TUE, EXCEPT FOR FRESH NORTHWEST WINDS AND RESIDUAL NORTHWEST
SWELL OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA, MAINLY NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF THE REGION CONTINUES TO SUSTAIN
THE TRADE WIND FLOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA, RESULTING IN PERSISTENT GAP WINDS ACROSS THE
PAPAGAYO REGION, THE NICARAGUAN OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE GULF OF
FONSECA AND REACHING TO NEAR 95W. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS ARE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION EXTENDING WESTWARD
TO NEAR 93W. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS ARE AROUND 4 TO 6 FT. MODERATE
NORTH WINDS ARE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA REACHING SOUTHWARD TO NEAR
05N. SEAS THERE ARE ABOUT 3 TO 5 FT. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS DUE TO A LONG-PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL ARE ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION AS A RIDGE PERSISTS NORTH OF THE AREA.
THIS WILL SUPPORT PULSES OF FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG
NORTHEAST TO EAST GAP WINDS IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION MAINLY AT
NIGHT THROUGH TUE. PEAK SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 5 TO 8 FT
DOWNSTREAM EACH LATE NIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MODERATE
NORTH WINDS WILL PULSE TO LOCALLY FRESH EACH EVENING AND AT NIGHT
IN THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH MON NIGHT. MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS IN LONG-PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL
WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE DURING THE PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OF 1036 MB IS LOCATED WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA NEAR 43N132W. ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE
FORECAST WATERS NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND WEST OF 110W. THIS PATTERN
IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE ITCZ TO NEAR 18N AND WEST OF 120W. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS ARE
7 TO 9 FT. A TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG A POSITION FROM NEAR
20N136W TO 26N133W. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND
THE TROUGH IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG EAST WINDS
NORTH OF 24N W OF 130W, AND ALSO N OF 27N BETWEEN 120W AND 128W.
SEAS WITH THESE WINDS ARE 8 TO 10 FT.
THE TIGHT GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO RELAX THROUGH MON AS THE
TROUGH WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES, AND WHILE THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS SOUTHWARD AND IT TOO WEAKENS. THIS PROCESS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE WINDS OVER THIS PART OF THE AREA TO DIMINISH TO MOSTLY FRESH
SPEEDS AND BECOME NORTHEAST TO EAST IN DIRECTION. WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING SOUTHWARD, THIS WILL CAUSE THE TRADE WINDS TO
EXPAND IN COVERAGE, COVERING THE WATERS WEST OF 120W THROUGH TUE
AT MOSTLY STRONG SPEEDS. PEAK SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND
10 FT WITH THESE WINDS WEST OF 130W ON TUE.
RAMOS
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