263
AXPZ20 KNHC 092209
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN FEB 9 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2150 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE OF 1011 MB
LOCATED OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 09N76W TO 09N84W TO 05N105W,
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ, WHICH THEN CONTINUES TO
05N112W. THE ITCZ RESUMES AT 08N120W TO 05N133W TO BEYOND
04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 02N TO 08N E
OF 85W, FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN 93W AND 106W, AND FROM 03N TO
15N W OF 127W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOW SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE
NW WINDS N OF PUNTA EUGENIA ALONG WITH 7 TO 8 FT SEAS IN LONG
PERIOD SWELL. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS, INCLUDING THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. SEAS ARE 1 TO 3 FT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND 3
TO 4 FT ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, WINDS IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION WILL BECOME
FRESH TO STRONG FROM THE NORTH ON MON, DIMINISHING TO GENTLE
SPEEDS TUE. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH MON. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SPEEDS IN THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA MON NIGHT INTO TUE AND THEN AGAIN ON
THU AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS THERE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS MON
EVENING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE SW CONUS AND A CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHWARD
TO THE SUBTROPICAL OPEN WATERS NEAR 25N132W. THIS WILL LEAD TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS TO
10 FT ACROSS THE BAJA OFFSHORES, LOCALLY STRONG N OF PUNTA
EUGENIA, NEAR CABO SAN LAZARO AND IN THE REGION OF CABO SAN
LUCAS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF THE REGION CONTINUES TO SUSTAIN
THE TRADE WIND FLOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA, RESULTING IN PERSISTENT GAP WINDS ACROSS THE
PAPAGAYO REGION, THE NICARAGUAN OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE GULF OF
FONSECA. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ARE IN THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO REGION EXTENDING WESTWARD TO NEAR 89W. SEAS WITH
THESE WINDS ARE AROUND 4 TO 6 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTH WINDS
ARE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA REACHING SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 05N. SEAS
THERE ARE ABOUT 3 TO 4 FT. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS DUE TO A LONG-PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL ARE ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION AS A RIDGE PERSISTS NORTH OF THE AREA.
THIS WILL SUPPORT PULSES OF FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG
NORTHEAST TO EAST GAP WINDS IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION MAINLY AT
NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. PEAK SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 5 TO 8
FT DOWNSTREAM EACH LATE NIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MODERATE
NORTH WINDS WILL PULSE TO LOCALLY FRESH EACH EVENING AND AT
NIGHT IN THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS IN LONG-PERIOD SOUTHWEST
SWELL WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE DURING THE PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OF 1037 MB IS LOCATED WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA NEAR 46N131W. ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE
FORECAST WATERS NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND WEST OF 110W. THIS PATTERN
IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE ITCZ TO NEAR 18N AND WEST OF 120W. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS ARE
7 TO 9 FT. A TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG A POSITION FROM NEAR
23N135W TO 27N133W. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND
THE TROUGH IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG EAST WINDS
NORTH OF 24N W OF 130W, AND ALSO N OF 27N BETWEEN 120W AND 128W.
SEAS WITH THESE WINDS ARE 8 TO 10 FT.
THE TIGHT GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO RELAX THROUGH MON AS THE
TROUGH WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES, AND WHILE THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS SOUTHWARD AND IT TOO WEAKENS. THIS PROCESS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE WINDS OVER THIS PART OF THE AREA TO DIMINISH TO MOSTLY FRESH
SPEEDS AND BECOME NORTHEAST TO EAST IN DIRECTION. WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING SOUTHWARD, THIS WILL CAUSE THE TRADE WINDS TO
EXPAND IN COVERAGE, COVERING THE WATERS WEST OF 120W THROUGH TUE
AT MOSTLY STRONG SPEEDS. PEAK SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND
10 FT WITH THESE WINDS WEST OF 130W ON TUE.
RAMOS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page