153
AXPZ20 KNHC 100935
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON FEB 10 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0915 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE OF 1009 MB
LOCATED OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 09N76W TO 09N85W TO 07N92W
AND TO 05N102W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO 04N110W
AND TO 06N121W. IT RESUMES AT 07N125W TO 07N135W AND TO BEYOND
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
SEEN WITHIN 180 NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 126W AND 130W AND
BETWEEN 133W AND 136W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
180 NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 138W AND 140W, AND WITHIN
30 NM SOUTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 138W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING THAT EXTENDS FROM A STRONG HIGH
CENTER WELL NORTH OF THE AREA SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS IS SUPPORTING MOSTLY FRESH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS NORTH
OF PUNTA EUGENIA, AND GENTLE NORTHWEST WINDS SOUTH OF PUNTA
EUGENIA. SEAS ARE 6 TO 9 FT IN NORTHWEST SWELL NORTH OF PUNTA
EUGENIA AND 5 TO 8 FT IN NORTHWEST SWELL SOUTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA.
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF MEXICAN
OFFSHORE WATERS, INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SEAS ARE 1 TO
3 FT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND 3 TO 5 FT ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL SURGE THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT,
THEN DIMINISH TO GENTLE SPEEDS TUE. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND
SLIGHT SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TODAY. WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SPEEDS IN
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUE, AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON FRI AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A
TROUGH THERE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUE NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES,
AND AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH WELL WEST OF THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN SET-UP WILL LEAD TO
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER MOST OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS MAY
OCCUR NEAR THE COAST NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TUE NIGHT INTO
EARLY WED.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE PRESENT IN THE
SOUTHERN SECTION OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA
IS MAINTAINING THE TRADE WIND FLOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
AND SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA, RESULTING IN PERSISTENT GAP WINDS
ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND ALSO ACROSS THE NICARAGUAN
OFFSHORE WATERS. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ARE IN
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION EXTENDING WESTWARD TO NEAR 89W. SEAS
WITH THESE WINDS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 5 TO 7 FT. MODERATE TO
FRESH NORTH WINDS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA EXTEND SOUTHWARD TO NEAR
07N AS NOTED IN A RECENT ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA PASS. SEAS
THERE ARE 3 TO 5 FT AS DEPICTED IN AN OVERNIGHT ALTIMETER
SATELLITE PASS. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARISING
FROM A LONG-PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL ARE ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE GRADIENT RELATED TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PULSES OF
FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST GAP WINDS IN THE
PAPAGAYO REGION MAINLY AT NIGHT WELL INTO THIS WEEK. PEAK SEAS
WITH THESE WINDS WILL REACH TO AROUND 7 FT. MODERATE NORTH WINDS
WILL PULSE TO LOCALLY FRESH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT IN THE GULF
OF PANAMA AND AGAIN ON TUE EVENING. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS IN LONG-PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE DURING THE PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
RATHER BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THESE WATERS, WITH THE
EASTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGING REACHING TO NEAR 116W. THE PARENT
STRONG HIGH CENTER OF 1034 MB IS LOCATED WELL NORTH OF THE
DISCUSSION DOMAIN. A TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 28N140W TO 24N136W.
A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE TROUGH IS
INDUCING FRESH TO STRONG EAST WINDS FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 131W
AND 138W. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS ARE 8 TO 10 FT. A TROUGH IS
ANALYZED ALONG A POSITION FROM NEAR 23N135W TO 27N133W. SEAS OF 8
TO 9 FT IN MIX SWELL ARE ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 25N WEST OF 129W. TO
THE SOUTH, FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE OVER THE WESTERN
SECTION OF THE DOMAIN FROM 07N TO 16N ALONG WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 10
FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE TIGHT GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO RELAX
THROUGH MON AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES, AND WHILE
AT THE SAME TIME THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD AS IT TOO WEAKENS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS THAT ARE FROM 26N TO 30N AND BETWEEN 131W AND 138W
TO DIMINISH TO MOSTLY FRESH SPEEDS. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTING SOUTHWARD, THIS WILL CAUSE THE TRADE WINDS TO EXPAND IN
COVERAGE, COVERING THE WATERS WEST OF ABOUT 118W THROUGH TUE AT
MOSTLY STRONG SPEEDS. PEAK SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 10
OR 11 FT WITH THESE WINDS WEST OF 130W ON TUE.
AGUIRRE
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