249
AXPZ20 KNHC 101535
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON FEB 10 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE OF 1009 MB
LOCATED OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N74W TO 07N90W TO 04N108W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N108W TO 07N125W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 12N W OF 125W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A RIDGE, THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1033 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
LOCATED NEAR 36N134W, DOMINATES THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTING MOSTLY FRESH NORTHWEST
TO NORTH WINDS NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA WITH SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT,
AND GENTLE NORTHWEST WINDS SOUTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA WITH SEAS OF 5
TO 8 FT IN NW SWELL. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS, INCLUDING THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. SEAS ARE 1 TO 3 FT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND 3
TO 5 FT ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH NORTH WINDS WILL SURGE THROUGH THE
TEHUANTEPEC REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT, THEN DIMINISH TO GENTLE
SPEEDS TUE. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TODAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SPEEDS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE, AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON FRI AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A TROUGH THERE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS FROM
THIS EVENING THROUGH TUE NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES, AND AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE
SOUTH WELL WEST OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN
SET-UP WILL LEAD TO MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS OVER MOST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS. STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS MAY OCCUR NEAR THE COAST NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO
TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE PRESENT IN THE
SOUTHERN SECTION OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA
IS MAINTAINING THE TRADE WIND FLOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
AND SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA, RESULTING IN PERSISTENT GAP WINDS
ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND ALSO ACROSS THE NICARAGUAN
OFFSHORE WATERS. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ARE IN
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION EXTENDING WESTWARD TO NEAR 89W. SEAS
WITH THESE WINDS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 5 TO 7 FT. MODERATE TO
FRESH NORTH WINDS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA EXTEND SOUTHWARD TO NEAR
07N. SEAS THERE ARE 3 TO 5 FT. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS IN SOUTHWEST SWELL ARE ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE GRADIENT RELATED TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PULSES OF
FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST GAP WINDS IN THE
PAPAGAYO REGION MAINLY AT NIGHT WELL INTO THIS WEEK. PEAK SEAS
WITH THESE WINDS WILL REACH TO AROUND 7 FT. MODERATE NORTH WINDS
WILL PULSE TO LOCALLY FRESH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT IN THE GULF
OF PANAMA AND AGAIN ON TUE EVENING. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS IN LONG-PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE DURING THE PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE FORECAST WATERS N OF THE ITCZ AND W
OF 110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ SUPPORTS AN AREA OF
TRADE WINDS FROM 07N TO 16N W OF 130W. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS ARE
8 TO 10 FT. FARTHER N, ANOTHER AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E
WINDS IS OBSERVED FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 131W AND 140W. SEAS
AREA 8 TO 10 FT WITHIN THESE WINDS. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE
AND MODERATE SEAS, PRIMARILY IN NW SWELL, PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD WHILE WEAKENING. THIS WILL CAUSE THE TRADE WINDS TO
EXPAND IN COVERAGE, COVERING THE WATERS WEST OF ABOUT 118W
THROUGH TUE AT MOSTLY STRONG SPEEDS. PEAK SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH AROUND 10 OR 11 FT WITH THESE WINDS WEST OF 130W ON TUE.
GR
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