009
AXPZ20 KNHC 102113
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON FEB 10 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE OF 1009 MB
LOCATED OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N74W TO 05N95W TO 04N109W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N109W TO 07N125W TO BEYOND 06N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 12N W OF 125W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A RIDGE, THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1033 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED
NEAR 35N134W, DOMINATES THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST
TO NORTH WINDS NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA WITH SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT,
AND GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS SOUTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA
WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT IN NW SWELL. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA
INDICATE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS N WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
AND DOWNWIND TO 15N. SEAS ARE 4 TO 5 FT WITHIN THESE WINDS. LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF MEXICAN OFFSHORE
WATERS, INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SEAS ARE 1 TO 3 FT IN
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND 3 TO 5 FT ELSEWHERE PRIMARILY IN NW
SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NW TO N WINDS N OF PUNTA EUGENIA
THROUGH MID-WEEK WHILE MAINLY MODERATE NW TO N WINDS WILL PREVAIL
BETWEEN PUNTA EUGENIA AND CABO SAN LUCAS. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO
10 OR 11 FT IN NW SWELL ACROSS THE WATERS N OF PUNTA EUGENIA
TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THERE TO 8 FT OR
LESS ON WED. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG SPEEDS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 5 FT. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN NW SWELL ARE
EXPECTED.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE PRESENT IN THE
SOUTHERN SECTION OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA
IS MAINTAINING THE TRADE WIND FLOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
AND SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA, RESULTING IN PERSISTENT GAP WINDS
ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND ALSO ACROSS THE NICARAGUAN
OFFSHORE WATERS. RECENT SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA INDICATE FRESH
TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO EXTENDING WESTWARD TO NEAR 89W. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS
ARE IN THE RANGE OF 5 TO 7 FT. MODERATE NORTH WINDS IN THE GULF
OF PANAMA EXTEND SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 05N. SEAS THERE ARE 3 TO 5
FT. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN SOUTHWEST SWELL
ARE ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE GRADIENT RELATED TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PULSES OF
FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST GAP WINDS IN THE
PAPAGAYO REGION MAINLY AT NIGHT WELL INTO THIS WEEK. PEAK SEAS
WITH THESE WINDS WILL REACH TO AROUND 7 FT. MODERATE NORTH WINDS
WILL PULSE TO LOCALLY FRESH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT IN THE GULF
OF PANAMA. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
IN LONG-PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE DURING THE
PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A RIDGE, ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR 35N134W,
DOMINATES MOST OF THE FORECAST WATERS N OF THE ITCZ AND W OF
110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER
PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ SUPPORTS AN AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG NE TO E WINDS FROM 09N TO 17N W OF 125W, AND FROM 17N TO
25N W OF 130W. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS ARE 8 TO 10 FT. ELSEWHERE,
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS, PRIMARILY IN NW
SWELL, PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD WHILE WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. AS A
RESULT, THE AERIAL EXTENT OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY MID-WEEK. PEAK SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
AROUND 10 OR 11 FT WITH THESE WINDS WEST OF 130W ON TUE.
GR
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