364
AXPZ20 KNHC 110350
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE FEB 11 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST COLOMBIA TO
09N84W TO 05N91W TO 06N100W TO 05N106W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS
TO THE ITCZ AND CONTINUES TO 05N106W TO 04N115W TO 07N126W.
IT RESUMES AT 05N134W TO BEYOND 04N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO 14N
AND WEST OF 134W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1030 MB HIGH CENTER LOCATED WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 34N134W DOMINATES THE OFFSHORE FORECAST
WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING MOSTLY
FRESH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA ALONG WITH
SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FT IN NORTHWEST SWELL, AND GENTLE TO MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS SOUTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT IN
NW SWELL FROM LOS CABOS TO CABO SAN LAZARO AND SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT
FROM CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUNTA EUGENIA. FRESH NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS ARE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS, INCLUDING THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. SEAS ARE 1 TO 3 FT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND 3
TO 5 FT DUE TO A NORTHWEST SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS NORTH OF
PUNTA EUGENIA THROUGH WED WHILE MAINLY MODERATE NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN PUNTA EUGENIA AND CABO SAN
LUCAS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD UP TO 10 OR 11 FT IN NORTHWEST
SWELL OVER THE WATERS NORTH F PUNTA EUGENIA TONIGHT THROUGH TUE
NIGHT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THERE TO 8 FT OR LESS ON WED. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SPEEDS IN THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 5 FT. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS DUE TO LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL ARE
EXPECTED.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE PRESENT IN THE
SOUTHERN SECTION OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA
IS MAINTAINING THE TRADE WIND FLOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
AND SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA, RESULTING IN PERSISTENT GAP WINDS
ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND ALSO ACROSS THE NICARAGUAN
OFFSHORE WATERS. THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA PASS
NEAR CENTRAL AMERICA SHOWS FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO EXTENDING WESTWARD TO NEAR
89W. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 5 TO 7 FT.
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTH WINDS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA EXTEND
SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 05N. SEAS THERE ARE 3 TO 5 FT. LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN LONG-PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL ARE
ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE GRADIENT RELATED TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PULSES OF
FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST GAP WINDS IN THE
PAPAGAYO REGION MAINLY AT NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
PEAK SEAS WITH THESE WINDS WILL REACH TO AROUND 7 FT. MODERATE
NORTH WINDS WILL PULSE TO LOCALLY FRESH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
IN THE GULF OF PANAMA. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS IN LONG-PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE DURING THE PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A RIDGE THAT IS ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTER LOCATED WELL
NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 34N134W DOMINATES MOST OF THE
FORECAST WATERS NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND WEST OF 110W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ SUPPORTS A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHEAST TO EAST TRADE WINDS FROM 09N TO 25N BETWEEN 125W AND
135W AND FROM 09N TO 20N BETWEEN 135W AND 140W. SEAS WITH THESE
WINDS ARE 9 TO 10 FT. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS DUE TO LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL MIXING WITH
A NORTHEAST TO EAST SWELL COMPONENT REMAIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD WHILE WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. AS A
RESULT, THE AERIAL EXTENT OF THE FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO
EAST TRADE WINDS WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME THIS MORNING, THEN
BEGIN TO DECREASE INTO WED. PEAK SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
11 FT WITH THESE WINDS WEST OF 135W ON TUE.
AGUIRRE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page