343
AXPZ20 KNHC 110837
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE FEB 11 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0815 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST COLOMBIA TO
09N84W TO 04N92W TO 05N100W TO 06N105W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO
THE ITCZ AND CONTINUES TO 05N113W TO 06N120W TO 07N129W. IT
RESUMES AT 04N134W TO BEYOND 04N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 04N TO 15N BETWEEN 134W
AND 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM
NORTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 120W AND 125W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM HIGH PRESSURE OF 1030 MB THAT IS
CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 33N134W DOMINATES THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING
MOSTLY FRESH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA
ALONG WITH SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FT IN NORTHWEST SWELL, AND GENTLE TO
MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS SOUTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA WITH SEAS OF 5 TO
7 FT IN NORTHWEST SWELL FROM LOS CABOS TO CABO SAN LAZARO AND
SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT FROM CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUNTA EUGENIA. FRESH
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS,
INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SEAS ARE 1 TO 3 FT IN THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA, AND 3 TO 5 FT DUE TO A NORTHWEST SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE OFFSHORE FORECAST
WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST
TO NORTH WINDS NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA THROUGH WED WHILE MAINLY
MODERATE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN PUNTA
EUGENIA AND CABO SAN LUCAS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK TO
ABOUT 11 FT TODAY AND TONIGHT IN NORTHWEST SWELL OVER THE WATERS
NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THERE TO 8 FT OR LESS
ON WED. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL DIMINISH WED. SEAS WITH THESE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 5 FT BEFORE THE WINDS DIMINISH
ON WED. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND ALONG WITH
MODERATE SEAS DUE TO LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL ARE EXPECTED.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE PRESENT IN THE
SOUTHERN SECTION OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA
IS MAINTAINING THE TRADE WIND FLOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
AND SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA, RESULTING IN PERSISTENT GAP WINDS
ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND ALSO ACROSS THE NICARAGUAN
OFFSHORE WATERS. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST GAP WINDS
ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO EXTEND WESTWARD TO NEAR 89W. SEAS
WITH THESE WINDS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 5 TO 7 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTH WINDS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA EXTEND SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 05N.
SEAS THERE ARE 3 TO 5 FT. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
IN LONG-PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL ARE ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE GRADIENT RELATED TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PULSES OF
FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST GAP WINDS IN THE
PAPAGAYO REGION MAINLY AT NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
PEAK SEAS WITH THESE WINDS WILL REACH TO AROUND 7 FT. MODERATE
TO FRESH NORTH WINDS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA WILL DIMINISH TO
GENTLE TO MODERATE SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON, AND BRIEFLY PULSE
BACK AGAIN TO MODERATE TO FRESH SPEEDS LATE TONIGHT AND ON
WED NIGHT. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
IN LONG-PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE DURING THE
PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A RIDGE THAT IS ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTER LOCATED WELL
NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 33N134W DOMINATES MOST OF THE
FORECAST WATERS NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND WEST OF ABOUT 110W. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE
FOUND IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ AS WELL AS NEAR A TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM 12N132W TO 05N134W WITH A 1012 MB LOW ALONG IT
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS FROM 09N TO 24N BETWEEN 120W AND 140W AS VIVIDLY CAPTURED
BY SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA PASSES OVER THAT PART OF THE
DISCUSSION DOMAIN. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS ARE IN THE RANGE OF
8 TO 10 FT AS SCANNED BY OVERNIGHT ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA
PASSES. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
DUE TO LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL MIXING WITH A NORTHEAST TO
EAST SWELL COMPONENT REMAIN.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION CONCENTRATED FROM 09N TO 15N BETWEEN 127W AND 134W. A
TROUGH, AS MENTIONED ABOVE, IS ANALYZED FROM 12N132W TO 05N134W
ALONG WITH LOW PRESSURE OF 1012 MB ALONG IT NEAR 09N133W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINT
LOCATION OF 11N114W.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD WHILE WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. AS A
RESULT, THE AERIAL EXTENT OF THE FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO
EAST TRADE WINDS WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME THIS MORNING, THEN
BEGIN TO DECREASE INTO WED. PEAK SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
11 FT WITH THESE WINDS WEST OF 135W TODAY.
AGUIRRE
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