028
AXPZ20 KNHC 111540
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE FEB 11 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N74W TO
TO 07N85W TO 03N95W TO 04N104W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N104W TO
06N120W TO 09N133W TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 12N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A RIDGE, THAT EXTENDS FROM HIGH PRESSURE OF 1028 MB THAT IS
CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 32N135W DOMINATES THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING
MOSTLY FRESH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA
ALONG WITH SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FT IN NORTHWEST SWELL, AND GENTLE TO
MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS SOUTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA WITH SEAS OF 5 TO
7 FT IN NORTHWEST SWELL. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SW WINDS ARE
NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH SEAS OF 3 TO 5
FT. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS, INCLUDING THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SEAS ARE 1 TO 3 FT IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, AND 3 TO 5 FT DUE TO A NORTHWEST SWELL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE OFFSHORE FORECAST
WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST
TO NORTH WINDS NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA THROUGH WED WHILE MAINLY
MODERATE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN PUNTA
EUGENIA AND CABO SAN LUCAS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK TO
ABOUT 11 FT TODAY AND TONIGHT IN NORTHWEST SWELL OVER THE WATERS
NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THERE TO 8 FT OR LESS
ON WED. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL DIMINISH WED. SEAS WITH
THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 5 FT BEFORE THE WINDS
DIMINISH ON WED. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND ALONG
WITH MODERATE SEAS DUE TO LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL ARE EXPECTED.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE PRESENT IN THE
SOUTHERN SECTION OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA
IS MAINTAINING THE TRADE WIND FLOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
AND SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA, RESULTING IN PERSISTENT GAP WINDS
ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND ALSO ACROSS THE NICARAGUAN
OFFSHORE WATERS. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST GAP WINDS
ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO EXTEND WESTWARD TO NEAR 89W. SEAS
WITH THESE WINDS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 5 TO 7 FT. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH NORTH WINDS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA EXTEND SOUTHWARD
TO NEAR 05N. SEAS THERE ARE 3 TO 5 FT. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS IN LONG-PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL ARE ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE GRADIENT RELATED TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PULSES OF
FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST GAP WINDS IN THE
PAPAGAYO REGION MAINLY AT NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
PEAK SEAS WITH THESE WINDS WILL REACH TO AROUND 7 FT. MODERATE
TO FRESH NORTH WINDS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA WILL DIMINISH TO
GENTLE TO MODERATE SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON, AND BRIEFLY PULSE
BACK AGAIN TO MODERATE TO FRESH SPEEDS LATE TONIGHT AND ON
WED NIGHT. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
IN LONG-PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE DURING THE
PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A RIDGE THAT IS ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTER LOCATED NORTH
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N135W DOMINATES MOST OF THE
FORECAST WATERS NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND WEST OF ABOUT 110W. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE
FOUND IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A BROAD
AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM 11N TO 22N BETWEEN 120W
AND 140W AS CAPTURED BY SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA. SEAS WITH
THESE WINDS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 8 TO 10 FT AS SCANNED BY
LATEST ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS DUE TO MIXED NE AND NW SWELL REMAIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD WHILE WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. AS A
RESULT, THE AERIAL EXTENT OF THE FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO
EAST TRADE WINDS WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME THIS MORNING, THEN
BEGIN TO DECREASE INTO WED. PEAK SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 11 FT
WITH THESE WINDS WEST OF 135W TODAY. LOOKING AHEAD, A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO REACH THE NW WATERS ON THU. FRESH TO STRONG SW TO
W WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A NEW SET OF LONG PERIOD
NW SWELL WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT, BUILDING SEAS TO 12 FT N OF 28N
BETWEEN 128W AND 137W BY THU NIGHT. SEAS COULD FURTHER INCREASE
TO 15 OR 16 FT N OF 28N BETWEEN 122W AND 128W ON FRI.
GR
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