919
AXPZ20 KNHC 112117
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE FEB 11 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N74W TO
TO 03N95W TO 05N112W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N112W TO 07N130W
TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 120W AND 127W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1029 MB IS LOCATED NEAR 30N135W. ITS ASSOCIATED
RIDGE DOMINATES THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NW TO N WINDS AS OBSERVED IN RECENT
SCATTEROMETER PASS. SEAS ARE 7 TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL N OF PUNTA
EUGENIA, AND 5 TO 7 FT BETWEEN PUNTA EUGENIA AND CABO SAN LUCAS.
FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA,
MAINLY FROM 27N TO 30.5N WITH SEAS UP TO 6 FT. LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS,
INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF CABO CORRIENTES,
AND SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS FROM THE N IN THE GULF OF TEHUNATEPEC.
SEAS ARE 1 TO 3 FT IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, AND 3 TO 5 FT DUE TO A NORTHWEST SWELL ELSEWHERE.
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING NORTHERN MEXICO.
THIS IS SUPPORTING INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE
E OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL IN MEXICO. THE WINDS BLOW
BETWEEN CANYONS OVER A HIGH TERRAIN (GAP WIND EFFECT) AND THEN
INTENSIFY. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS MORE COMMON IN WINTER BUT IT
ALSO COULD OCCUR IN SPRING WHEN A STRONG DRY-LINE IS OVER TEXAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS NORTH OF
PUNTA EUGENIA THROUGH WED WHILE MAINLY MODERATE NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN PUNTA EUGENIA AND CABO SAN
LUCAS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK TO 11 FT TONIGHT IN NORTHWEST
SWELL OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
THERE TO 8 FT OR LESS ON WED. THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL
DIMINISH WED. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND
6 FT BEFORE THE WINDS DIMINISH ON WED. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS DUE TO LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST
SWELL ARE EXPECTED. LOOKING AHEAD, A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE
WATERS N OF PUNTA EUGENIA ON FRI FOLLOWED BY FRESH NW TO N WINDS
AND A NEW SET OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL, FORECAST TO BUILD SEAS TO
13 OR 14 FT.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE PRESENT IN THE
SOUTHERN SECTION OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA
IS MAINTAINING A STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA, RESULTING IN PERSISTENT
GAP WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND ALSO ACROSS THE
NICARAGUAN OFFSHORE WATERS. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST GAP WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO AND DOWNWIND TO NEAR 89W. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS ARE IN
THE RANGE OF 5 TO 7 FT. MODERATE NORTH WINDS ARE IN THE GULF OF
PANAMA EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 05N. SEAS THERE ARE 3 TO 5
FT. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN LONG-PERIOD
SOUTHWEST SWELL ARE ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PULSES OF FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY
STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST GAP WINDS IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION MAINLY
AT NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. PEAK SEAS WITH THESE WINDS WILL REACH
TO AROUND 7 FT. MODERATE NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF
PANAMA TONIGHT, THEN LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS IN LONG-PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A RIDGE THAT IS ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTER LOCATED NEAR
30N135W DOMINATES MOST OF THE FORECAST WATERS NORTH OF THE ITCZ
AND WEST OF ABOUT 110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH
PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE FOUND IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS
PARTICULARLY FROM 11N TO 20N BETWEEN 128W AND 140W AS CAPTURED
BY SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS ARE IN THE
RANGE OF 8 TO 10 FT BASED ON ALTIMETER DATA. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS DUE TO MIXED NE AND NW SWELL
REMAIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER THE NW FORECAST WATERS WHILE WEAKENING
THROUGH THU AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N TO 30N. THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS ON FRI,
AND EXTEND FROM NEAR THE CALIFORNIA/BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE BORDER
TO 27N130W WHERE IT WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. FRESH TO STRONG SW
TO W WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRESH NW TO N WINDS
AND A NEW SET OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. THIS
SWELL EVENT WILL BRING BUILDING SEAS TO 12 TO 16 FT ACROSS THE
WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 128W AND 137W BY THU NIGHT INTO FRI. AT
THE SAME TIME, THE AERIAL EXTENT OF THE FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST
TO EAST TRADE WINDS WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE ON WED.
GR
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