455
AXPZ20 KNHC 120406
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED FEB 12 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE PANAMA-COLOMBIA BORDER
TO 02N96W TO 05N114W. AN ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N114W TO 07N125W
TO BEYOND 07N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN
NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 00N TO 05N BETWEEN 88W
AND 111W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR THE ITCZ
FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1029 MB IS LOCATED NEAR 30N135W. ITS ASSOCIATED
RIDGE DOMINATES THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NW TO N WINDS AS OBSERVED IN RECENT
SCATTEROMETER PASS. SEAS ARE 7 TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL N OF PUNTA
EUGENIA, AND 5 TO 7 FT BETWEEN PUNTA EUGENIA AND CABO SAN LUCAS.
FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA,
MAINLY FROM 27N TO 30.5N WITH SEAS UP TO 6 FT. LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS,
INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF CABO CORRIENTES,
AND SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS FROM THE N IN THE GULF OF TEHUNATEPEC.
SEAS ARE 1 TO 3 FT IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, AND 3 TO 5 FT DUE TO A NORTHWEST SWELL ELSEWHERE.
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING NORTHERN MEXICO.
THIS IS SUPPORTING INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE
E OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL IN MEXICO. THE WINDS BLOW
BETWEEN CANYONS OVER A HIGH TERRAIN (GAP WIND EFFECT) AND THEN
INTENSIFY. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS MORE COMMON IN WINTER BUT IT
ALSO COULD OCCUR IN SPRING WHEN A STRONG DRY-LINE IS OVER TEXAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE WILL SUSTAIN MODERATE TO
FRESH WITH LOCALLY STRONG NW TO N WINDS, AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH
SEAS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS
THROUGH WED. BOTH WINDS AND SEAS ARE GOING TO SUBSIDE WED NIGHT
AND THU. FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS AT THE CENTRAL GULF OF
CALIFORNIA WILL DECREASE TO GENTLE BY WED NOON. IN THE LONG TERM,
A FRESH TO STRONG GAP WIND EVENT WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE
ANTICIPATED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FRI AND FRI NIGHT. IN
ADDITION, LARGE NW SWELL RELATED TO A COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE VERY
ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NEAR REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS FRI THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE PRESENT IN THE
SOUTHERN SECTION OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA
IS MAINTAINING A STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA, RESULTING IN PERSISTENT
GAP WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND ALSO ACROSS THE
NICARAGUAN OFFSHORE WATERS. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST GAP WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO AND DOWNWIND TO NEAR 89W. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS ARE IN
THE RANGE OF 5 TO 7 FT. MODERATE NORTH WINDS ARE IN THE GULF OF
PANAMA EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 05N. SEAS THERE ARE 3 TO 5
FT. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN LONG-PERIOD
SOUTHWEST SWELL ARE ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS AT THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE PULSES OF FRESH
TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NE TO E GAP WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE
PAPAGAYO REGION MAINLY AT NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. MODERATE NORTH
WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF PANAMA DURING NIGHTTIME
HOURS THROUGH FRI NIGHT. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS IN LONG-PERIOD SW SWELL WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A RIDGE THAT IS ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTER LOCATED NEAR
30N135W DOMINATES MOST OF THE FORECAST WATERS NORTH OF THE ITCZ
AND WEST OF ABOUT 110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH
PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE FOUND IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS
PARTICULARLY FROM 11N TO 20N BETWEEN 128W AND 140W AS CAPTURED
BY SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS ARE IN THE
RANGE OF 8 TO 10 FT BASED ON ALTIMETER DATA. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS DUE TO MIXED NE AND NW SWELL
REMAIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER THE NW FORECAST WATERS WHILE WEAKENING
THROUGH THU AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N TO 30N. THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS ON FRI,
AND EXTEND FROM NEAR THE CALIFORNIA/BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE BORDER
TO 27N130W WHERE IT WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. FRESH TO STRONG SW
TO W WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRESH NW TO N WINDS
AND A NEW SET OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. THIS
SWELL EVENT WILL BRING BUILDING SEAS TO 12 TO 16 FT ACROSS THE
WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 128W AND 137W BY THU NIGHT INTO FRI. AT
THE SAME TIME, THE AERIAL EXTENT OF THE FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST
TO EAST TRADE WINDS WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE ON WED.
CHAN
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