464
AXPZ20 KNHC 122114
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED FEB 12 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W TO 07N90W TO 03N100W TO
05N124W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES WESTWARD FROM 05N124W TO BEYOND
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM THE EQUATOR
TO 05N BETWEEN 100W AND 114W, AND FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 110W
AND 118W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA NEAR 27N133W EXTENDS A RIDGE EASTWARD TOWARD THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS SYSTEM IS SUSTAINING
MODERATE TO FRESH NW TO N WINDS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FT WEST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA. WINDS INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS IN THE
VICINITY OF CABO SAN LUCAS AS NOTED ON RECENT SATELLITE DERIVED
WIND DATA. GENTLE TO MODERATE NW TO N WINDS AND SEAS OF 1 TO 3 FT
DOMINATE THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE MEXICAN
OFFSHORE WATERS, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN NW
SWELL PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PRODUCING GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING WHEN A COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE WATERS N OF PUNTA EUGENIA. FRESH
NW TO N WINDS, AND A NEW SET OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT. THIS SWELL EVENT WILL BUILD SEAS TO 13 OR 14 FT N OF
PUNTA EUGENIA BY LATE FRI. WINDS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE
TO FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON FRI, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 7 FT.
THE NEXT GAP WIND EVENT IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION IS ALSO EXPECTED
ON FRI. THIS WILL BE A BRIEF EVENT WITH FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS
AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS THROUGH FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT DUE
TO THE DRAINAGE FLOW. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS WITH
MODERATE SEAS DUE TO LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL ARE EXPECTED.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A GAP
WIND EVENT ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION, AND ALSO ACROSS THE
NICARAGUAN OFFSHORE WATERS. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE
MODERATE NE TO E WINDS DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO
NEAR 90W. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 4 TO 6 FT.
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN LONG-PERIOD SOUTHWEST
SWELL ARE ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PULSES OF FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY
STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST GAP WINDS IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION MAINLY
AT NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. PEAK SEAS WITH THESE WINDS WILL REACH
7 OR 8 FT. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE GULF OF
PANAMA THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS IN LONG-PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA NEAR 27N133W. ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE DOMINATES MOST
OF THE WATERS N OF THE ITCZ AND W OF 110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE FOUND IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO SUPPORT AN AREA OF MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS PARTICULARLY FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 120W. SEAS
WITHIN THESE WINDS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 8 TO 10 FT BASED ON
ALTIMETER DATA. A LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SURROUNDS THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS DUE TO MIXED NE AND NW SWELL REMAIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER THE NW FORECAST WATERS WHILE WEAKENING
SOME THROUGH THU AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW TO 30N140W.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS ON
FRI, AND EXTEND FROM NEAR THE CALIFORNIA/BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE
BORDER TO 26N130W WHERE IT WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. FRESH TO STRONG
SW TO W WINDS ARE EXPECTED N OF 28N AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THU.
MODERATE TO FRESH NW TO N WINDS AND A NEW SET OF LONG PERIOD NW
SWELL WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. THIS SWELL EVENT WILL BRING BUILDING
SEAS TO 12 TO 16 FT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 127W AND
137W BY THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. THIS SWELL EVENT WILL CONTINUE
TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION, WITH SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER
COVERING MOST OF THE WATERS N OF 20N AND W OF 115W BY FRI NIGHT.
GR
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