287
AXPZ20 KNHC 130338
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU FEB 13 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0330 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING, AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY REACH GALE FORCE
LATE FRI MORNING, WITH WINDS REMAINING STRONG THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL DIMINISH SAT MORNING.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 04N125W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 04N125W TO 06N134W, AND RESUMES NEAR 06N137W AND
CONTINUES BEYOND 05N140W. A TROUGH HAS BEEN ANALYZED FROM 04N136W
TO 11N133W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 04N
TO 11N BETWEEN 108W AND 121W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N128W EXTENDS RIDGING THROUGH THE
MEXICO OFFSHORE WATERS, AND A TROUGH HAS BEEN ANALYZED OVER BAJA
CALIFORNIA. FARTHER EAST, A 1000 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER EAST-
CENTRAL MEXICO. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS MODERATE NW WINDS OVER THE
WATERS OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO, WITH LOCALLY FRESH WINDS OCCURRING OFFSHORE OF JALISCO
AND BETWEEN PUNTA EUGENIA AND CABO SAN LAZARO. GENTLE TO MODERATE
N TO NW WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. MODERATE SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT ARE
NOTED THROUGH THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS, WITH SLIGHT
SEAS OCCURRING THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND OFFSHORE OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.
FOR THE FORECAST, AWAY FROM DEVELOPING GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN PUNTA EUGENIA AND CABO SAN LAZARO AS WELL AS OFFSHORE OF
JALISCO AT TIMES THROUGH THU. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE WATERS EARLY FRI, AND MODERATE TO
FRESH N TO NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS THROUGH SAT.
WINDS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON FRI,
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 7 FT. A NEW LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS
NORTH OF 28N BY FRI MORNING, AND NORTH OF 20N BY SAT MORNING.
PEAK SEAS OF 12 TO 14 FT ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA FRI
AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT MORNING. LOOKING AHEAD, STRONG TO NEAR-GALE
FORCE WINDS WILL REDEVELOP IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON SUN AND
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO AS LOW PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA AND
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE,
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 5 FT PREVAIL IN THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, PULSING FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS WILL
OCCUR IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH SAT MORNING AS A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWESTERN
COLOMBIA. LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS. WINDS
MAY BRIEFLY DECREASE THIS WEEKEND BEFORE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
REDEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS
OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
BROAD RIDGING EXTENDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WATERS, WITH A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N128W AND A 1020 MB
HIGH NEAR 25N138W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TO E WINDS ARE
OCCURRING BETWEEN 08N AND 18N WEST OF 110W ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE, AND A RESIDUAL N TO NW SWELL IS PRODUCING SEAS OF 8
TO 9 FT IN THIS REGION. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED NEAR
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA IS
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH W WINDS NORTH OF 28.5N AND
WEST OF 125W. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND
ITCZ.
FOR THE FORECAST, A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG W TO SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THROUGH THU, GENERALLY NORTH OF 28N. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE
NW AND WEAKEN BEHIND THE FRONT. A NEW LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF 28N
THU MORNING, AND NORTH OF 23N BY FRI MORNING. PEAK SEAS OF 12 TO
16 FT ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF 25N THU EVENING THROUGH SAT MORNING,
BEFORE SEAS SLOWLY DIMINISH ON SUN. ELSEWHERE, ROUGH SEAS
PROMOTED BY A RESIDUAL NW SWELL WILL PREVAIL FROM 08N TO 20N WEST
OF 130W ON THU BEFORE BEING REINFORCED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED NEW
NW SWELL. MODERATE TO FRESH E TO NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN
10N AND 20N WEST OF 115W THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD, A
NEW NW SWELL WILL SUPPORT ROUGH SEAS IN THE NORTHWESTERN WATERS,
NORTH OF 10N AND WEST OF 120W, SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ADAMS
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