685
AXPZ20 KNHC 130912
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU FEB 13 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING,
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY REACH GALE FORCE LATE FRI
MORNING, WITH WINDS REMAINING STRONG THROUGH FRI NIGHT. ROUGH
SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH SAT
MORNING.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 04N126W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 04N126W TO 05N133W, AND RESUMES NEAR 05N136W AND
CONTINUES BEYOND 05N140W. A TROUGH HAS BEEN ANALYZED FROM 03N136W
TO 09N132W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 03N
TO 15N BETWEEN 107W AND 122W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N130W EXTENDS RIDGING THROUGH THE
MEXICO OFFSHORE WATERS, AND A TROUGH HAS BEEN ANALYZED OVER BAJA
CALIFORNIA. FARTHER EAST, A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER EAST-
CENTRAL MEXICO. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS MODERATE NW WINDS OVER THE
WATERS OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO, WITH LOCALLY FRESH WINDS OCCURRING OFFSHORE OF JALISCO.
GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE N TO NW WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
MODERATE SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT ARE NOTED THROUGH THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
OFFSHORE WATERS, WITH SLIGHT SEAS OCCURRING THROUGH THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AND OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
FOR THE FORECAST, AWAY FROM DEVELOPING GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN PUNTA EUGENIA AND CABO SAN LAZARO AS WELL AS OFFSHORE OF
JALISCO AT TIMES TODAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE WATERS EARLY FRI, AND MODERATE TO FRESH N
TO NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS THROUGH SAT. WINDS ARE ALSO
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON FRI, WITH SEAS BUILDING
TO AROUND 7 FT. A NEW LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT WILL PRODUCE ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF 28N BY FRI
MORNING, AND NORTH OF 20N BY SAT MORNING. PEAK SEAS OF 12 TO 14
FT ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT
MORNING. LOOKING AHEAD, STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS WILL
REDEVELOP IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON SUN AND CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS
LOW PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA AND HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 5 FT PREVAIL IN THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, PULSING FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS WILL
OCCUR IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH SAT MORNING AS A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA. LOCALLY
ROUGH SEAS MAY ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY DECREASE
THIS WEEKEND BEFORE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS REDEVELOP EARLY NEXT
WEEK. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
AMERICA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
BROAD RIDGING EXTENDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WATERS, WITH A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N130W. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH NE TO E WINDS ARE OCCURRING BETWEEN 08N AND 18N
WEST OF 110W ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, AND A RESIDUAL N
TO NW SWELL IS PRODUCING SEAS TO 8 FT IN THIS REGION. ELSEWHERE,
GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE. A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A COLD FRONT
NORTH OF THE AREA IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG W WINDS
NORTH OF 28.5N AND WEST OF 125W. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO LOCALLY
MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ.
FOR THE FORECAST, A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG W TO SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TODAY, GENERALLY NORTH OF 28N. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NW
AND WEAKEN BEHIND THE FRONT. A NEW LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF 27N
BY LATE THIS MORNING, AND NORTH OF 22N BY FRI MORNING. PEAK SEAS
OF 12 TO 16 FT ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF 25N THIS EVENING THROUGH SAT
MORNING, BEFORE SEAS SLOWLY DIMINISH ON SUN. ELSEWHERE, ROUGH
SEAS PROMOTED BY A RESIDUAL NW SWELL WILL PREVAIL FROM 08N TO 20N
WEST OF 130W TODAY BEFORE BEING REINFORCED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED
NEW NW SWELL THIS WEEKEND. MODERATE TO FRESH E TO NE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BETWEEN 10N AND 20N WEST OF 115W THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
LOOKING AHEAD, A NEW NW SWELL WILL SUPPORT ROUGH SEAS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN WATERS, NORTH OF 10N AND WEST OF 120W, SUN INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ADAMS
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