272
AXPZ20 KNHC 132203
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU FEB 13 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING, AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY REACH GALE FORCE ON FRI
MORNING, WITH WINDS REMAINING STRONG THROUGH FRI NIGHT. ROUGH
SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH SAT
MORNING.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N86W TO 05N116W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 05N116W TO 05N132W. A TROUGH HAS BEEN ANALYZED
FROM 02N136W TO 09N132W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING FROM 01N TO 09N BETWEEN 85W AND 93W, AND FROM 01N TO
15N BETWEEN 108W AND 119W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N127W EXTENDS RIDGING THROUGH THE
MEXICO OFFSHORE WATERS, AND A TROUGH HAS BEEN ANALYZED OVER BAJA
CALIFORNIA. FARTHER EAST, A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER EAST-
CENTRAL MEXICO. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS MODERATE NW WINDS OVER THE
WATERS OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO, WITH LOCALLY FRESH WINDS OCCURRING OFFSHORE OF JALISCO.
GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE N TO NW WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
MODERATE SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT ARE NOTED THROUGH THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
OFFSHORE WATERS, WITH SLIGHT SEAS OCCURRING THROUGH THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AND OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
FOR THE FORECAST, AWAY FROM DEVELOPING GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN PUNTA EUGENIA AND CABO SAN LAZARO AS WELL AS OFFSHORE OF
JALISCO AT TIMES TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE WATERS EARLY FRI, AND MODERATE TO FRESH
N TO NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS THROUGH SAT.
WINDS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON FRI,
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 7 FT. A NEW LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS
NORTH OF 28N BY FRI MORNING, AND NORTH OF 20N BY SAT MORNING.
PEAK SEAS OF 12 TO 14 FT ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA FRI
AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT MORNING. LOOKING AHEAD, STRONG TO NEAR-
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL REDEVELOP IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON SUN
AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS
LOW PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA AND HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 5 FT PREVAIL IN THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, PULSING FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS WILL
OCCUR IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH SAT MORNING AS A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA. LOCALLY
ROUGH SEAS MAY ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY DECREASE
THIS WEEKEND BEFORE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS REDEVELOP EARLY NEXT
WEEK. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
AMERICA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
BROAD RIDGING EXTENDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WATERS, WITH A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N127W. MODERATE TO
FRESH NE TO E WINDS ARE OCCURRING BETWEEN 08N AND 18N WEST OF
110W ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, AND A RESIDUAL N TO NW
SWELL IS PRODUCING SEAS TO 8 FT IN THIS REGION. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE
WINDS ARE NOTED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE. A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY ALONG 29N AND W OF 131W, IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG W WINDS NORTH OF 28.5N AND WEST OF 125W.
OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ.
FOR THE FORECAST, A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND THE COLD FRONT WILL
SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG W TO SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TODAY, GENERALLY NORTH OF 28N. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NW AND
WEAKEN BEHIND THE FRONT. A NEW LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF 27N TONIGHT AND
NORTH OF 22N BY FRI MORNING. PEAK SEAS OF 12 TO 15 FT ARE
EXPECTED NORTH OF 25N TONIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING, BEFORE SEAS
SLOWLY DIMINISH ON SUN. ELSEWHERE, ROUGH SEAS PROMOTED BY A
RESIDUAL NW SWELL WILL PREVAIL FROM 12N TO 20N WEST OF 135W
BEFORE BEING REINFORCED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED NEW NW SWELL THIS
WEEKEND. MODERATE TO FRESH E TO NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 10N
AND 20N WEST OF 115W THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD, A NEW
NW SWELL WILL SUPPORT ROUGH SEAS IN THE NORTHWESTERN WATERS,
NORTH OF 10N AND WEST OF 120W, SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ERA
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