358
AXPZ20 KNHC 140311
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI FEB 14 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING, AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF AMERICA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY REACH GALE FORCE ON FRI
MORNING, WITH WINDS REMAINING STRONG THROUGH FRI NIGHT. ROUGH
SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH SAT
MORNING.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N78W TO 04N110W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 04N110W TO 05N130W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 120W AND 125W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 26N120W.
THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS MODERATE NW WINDS OVER THE WATERS OFFSHORE
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND OFF CABO CORRIENTES. GENTLE TO LOCALLY
MODERATE N TO NW WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. MODERATE SEAS OF 4 TO 6
FT ARE NOTED THROUGH THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS, WITH
SLIGHT SEAS OCCURRING THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND OFFSHORE
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
FOR THE FORECAST, IN ADDITION TO THE DEVELOPING GALE FORCE WINDS
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION, A COLD FRONT APPROACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE FROM THE
WEST WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND
BAJA CALIFORNIA BY LATE FRI. FRESH TO STRONG W GAP WINDS WILL
IMPACT THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI.
LARGE NW SWELL WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO THE WATERS WEST OF
GUADALUPE ISLAND OVERNIGHT, OFF PUNTA EUGENIA BY LATE FRI, OFF
CABO SAN LAZARO EARLY SAT, OFF CABO SAN LUCAS LATE SAT, AND THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS BY LATE SAT. THIS SWELL WILL SUBSIDE BELOW
8 FT BY LATE SUN NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. LOOKING AHEAD, EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC MON.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS
LOW PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA AND HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 5 FT PREVAIL IN THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS WILL PULSE
ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH SAT MORNING AS A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA. LOCALLY
ROUGH SEAS MAY ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY DECREASE
THIS WEEKEND BEFORE FRESH GAP WINDS REDEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
AMERICA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE WATERS NORTH OF 25N,
DISPLACING WEAK RIDGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN 15N AND
25N. FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS PRECEDE THE FRONT, WITH 8 TO 10 FT
NW SWELL FOLLOWING THE FRONT. THIS PATTERN IS ALSO SUPPORTING
FRESH TRADE WINDS AND 5 TO 8 FT SEAS ACROSS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC
FROM ROUGHLY 10N TO 15N WEST OF 120W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS IN MIXED SWELL ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO BAJA
CALIFORNIA, THEN DISSIPATE LATE FRI. WINDS WILL DIMINISH NEAR
THE FRONT THROUGH FRI, BUT 8 TO 12 FT NW SWELL WILL FOLLOW ACROSS
THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT, SUPPORTING A BROADER AREA OF FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS
THE TROPICAL PACIFIC WEST OF 120W THROUGH SAT. THE LARGE NW SWELL
WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE WATERS NORTH OF 12N BETWEEN 115W AND 135W
BY LATE SAT. THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST,
ALLOWING TRADE WINDS TO DIMINISH. THE LARGE NW SWELL WILL PERSIST
NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 105W AND 125W. THAT FRONT WILL DISSIPATE
SOUTH OF 30N MON, BUT REINFORCING SWELL OF 8 TO 12 FT WILL
FOLLOW INTO THE WATERS SOUTHEAST OF 30N140W, AND WILL EXTEND
ACROSS THE AREA NORTH OF 15N AND WEST OF 120W BY TUE.
CHRISTENSEN
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