916
AXPZ20 KNHC 140925
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI FEB 14 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS WILL
PULSE ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TODAY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF AMERICA. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY
REACH GALE FORCE ON THIS MORNING, WITH WINDS REMAINING STRONG
THROUGH TONIGHT. ROUGH SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH SAT MORNING.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 05N95W TO 04N110W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N110W TO 05N130W TO 05N125W TO 07N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 02N TO 04N
BETWEEN 98W AND 105W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 26N120W. A
COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE NORTHERN WATERS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTE. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS MODERATE NW WINDS OVER THE WATERS
OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND OFF CABO CORRIENTES. GENTLE TO
LOCALLY MODERATE N TO NW WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. MODERATE SEAS
OF 4 TO 6 FT ARE NOTED THROUGH THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE
WATERS, WITH SLIGHT SEAS OCCURRING THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
AND OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
FOR THE FORECAST, IN ADDITION TO THE DEVELOPING GALE FORCE WINDS
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION, THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE FROM
THE WEST WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND
BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG W GAP WINDS WILL IMPACT
THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY. LARGE
NW SWELL WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO THE WATERS WEST OF GUADALUPE
ISLAND THIS MORNING, OFF PUNTA EUGENIA BY LATE TODAY, OFF CABO
SAN LAZARO EARLY SAT, OFF CABO SAN LUCAS LATE SAT, AND THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS BY LATE SAT. THIS SWELL WILL SUBSIDE BELOW
8 FT BY LATE SUN NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. LOOKING AHEAD, EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC MON.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS
LOW PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA AND HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 5 FT PREVAIL IN THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS WILL PULSE
ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH SAT MORNING AS A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA. LOCALLY
ROUGH SEAS MAY ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY DECREASE
THIS WEEKEND BEFORE FRESH GAP WINDS REDEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
AMERICA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE WATERS NORTH OF 25N,
DISPLACING WEAK RIDGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN 15N AND
25N. FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS PRECEDE THE FRONT, WITH 8 TO 10 FT
NW SWELL FOLLOWING THE FRONT. THIS PATTERN IS ALSO SUPPORTING
FRESH TRADE WINDS AND 5 TO 8 FT SEAS ACROSS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC
FROM ROUGHLY 10N TO 15N WEST OF 120W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS IN MIXED SWELL ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO BAJA
CALIFORNIA, THEN DISSIPATE LATE TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH NEAR
THE FRONT THROUGH THIS MORNING, BUT 8 TO 12 FT NW SWELL WILL
FOLLOW ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, SUPPORTING A BROADER AREA OF FRESH
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC WEST OF 120W THROUGH SAT.
THE LARGE NW SWELL WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE WATERS NORTH OF 12N
BETWEEN 115W AND 135W BY LATE SAT. THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN
SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST, ALLOWING TRADE WINDS TO DIMINISH. THE LARGE NW
SWELL WILL PERSIST NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 105W AND 125W. THAT FRONT
WILL DISSIPATE SOUTH OF 30N MON, BUT REINFORCING SWELL OF 8 TO
12 FT WILL FOLLOW INTO THE WATERS SOUTHEAST OF 30N140W, AND WILL
EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA NORTH OF 15N AND WEST OF 120W BY TUE.
CHRISTENSEN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page