451
AXPZ20 KNHC 141534
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI FEB 14 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1430 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS WILL
PULSE ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TODAY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF AMERICA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH
SAT. ROUGH SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THE GALE WINDS. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL DIMINISH SAT AFTERNOON.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 05N115W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 05N115W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OCCURRING FROM 02N TO 08N AND E OF 105W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 25N131W. A
COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE NORTHERN WATERS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTE. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS MODERATE NW WINDS OVER THE WATERS
OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND OFF CABO CORRIENTES. GENTLE TO
LOCALLY MODERATE N TO NW WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. MODERATE SEAS
OF 4 TO 6 FT ARE NOTED THROUGH THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE
WATERS, EXCEPT N OF 29N WHERE SEAS ARE PEAKING TO 8 FT DUE TO NW
SWELL. SLIGHT SEAS ARE OCCURRING THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
AND ELSEWHERE IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
FOR THE FORECAST, IN ADDITION TO THE GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION,
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE FROM THE WEST
WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG W GAP WINDS WILL IMPACT THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY. LARGE NW
SWELL WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO THE WATERS WEST OF GUADALUPE
ISLAND TODAY, OFF PUNTA EUGENIA BY TONIGHT, OFF CABO SAN LAZARO
EARLY SAT, OFF CABO SAN LUCAS LATE SAT, AND THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS BY LATE SAT. THIS SWELL WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY LATE
SUN NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. LOOKING AHEAD, EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND
OF FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC MON.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS
LOW PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA AND HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 5 FT PREVAIL IN THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS WILL PULSE
ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH SAT MORNING AS A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA. MODERATE
SEAS MAY ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY DECREASE THIS
WEEKEND BEFORE FRESH GAP WINDS REDEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
AMERICA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS,
ANALYZED ALONG 26N BETWEEN 118W AND 140W. FRESH SW WINDS ARE
NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT, WITH SEAS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH
SEAS. HIGHEST SEAS ARE NOTED N OF 27N, PEAKING TO 16 FT. THIS
PATTERN IS ALSO SUPPORTING FRESH TRADE WINDS AND 5 TO 8 FT SEAS
ACROSS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC FROM ROUGHLY 10N TO 15N WEST OF 115W.
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN MIXED SWELL ARE
NOTED ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE LATE TODAY. ROUGH TO
VERY ROUGH SEAS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH SAT, WHILE SUBSIDING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, SUPPORTING A BROADER AREA OF
FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC WEST OF 120W
THROUGH SAT. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN
AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST, ALLOWING
TRADE WINDS TO DIMINISH. NEW NW SWELL WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ERA
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