283
AXPZ20 KNHC 142103
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI FEB 14 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: GALE-FORCE N WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF AMERICA. AFTER
TONIGHT, WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH SAT. ROUGH SEAS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE GALE WINDS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH SAT
AFTERNOON.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N84W TO 04N116W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 04N116W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OCCURRING FROM 01N TO 09N AND E OF 106W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 25N130W. A
COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE NORTHERN WATERS OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS MODERATE NW
WINDS OVER THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, WHILE FRESH TO
STRONG SW WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GENTLE TO MODERATE N TO NW WINDS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE. MODERATE SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT ARE NOTED THROUGH THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS, EXCEPT N OF 28N WHERE SEAS ARE
PEAKING TO 12 FT DUE TO NW SWELL. SLIGHT SEAS ARE OCCURRING
THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND ELSEWHERE IN THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
FOR THE FORECAST, IN ADDITION TO THE GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION,
THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA
AND BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG W GAP WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT. LARGE NW SWELL WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO
THE WATERS OFF PUNTA EUGENIA BY TONIGHT, OFF CABO SAN LAZARO
EARLY SAT, OFF CABO SAN LUCAS LATE SAT, AND THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS BY LATE SAT. THIS SWELL WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY LATE
SUN NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. LOOKING AHEAD, EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND
OF FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC MON.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS
LOW PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA AND HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT PREVAIL IN THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS WILL PULSE
ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH SAT MORNING AS A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA. MODERATE
SEAS MAY ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY DECREASE THIS
WEEKEND BEFORE FRESH GAP WINDS REDEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
AMERICA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS,
ANALYZED ALONG 27N AND E OF 124W. MODERATE TO FRESH SW WINDS ARE
NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT, WITH SEAS ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH INDUCED BY A LARGE NW SWELL. HIGHEST SEAS ARE NOTED N OF
26N, PEAKING TO 15 FT. THIS PATTERN IS ALSO SUPPORTING FRESH
TRADE WINDS AND 5 TO 8 FT SEAS ACROSS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC FROM
ROUGHLY 10N TO 15N WEST OF 115W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS IN MIXED SWELL ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE LATE TODAY. ROUGH TO
VERY ROUGH SEAS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH SAT, WHILE SUBSIDING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, SUPPORTING A BROADER AREA OF
FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC WEST OF 115W
THROUGH SAT. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN
AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST, ALLOWING
TRADE WINDS TO DIMINISH. NEW NW SWELL WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ERA
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