488
AXPZ20 KNHC 150924
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT FEB 15 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N94W TO 04N100W TO 05N110W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N110W TO BEYOND 03N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 120W
AND 125W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE
AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS
MODERATE NW WINDS OVER THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
STRONGER WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT HAVE DIMINISHED. NW SWELL OF 8 TO 13 FT FOLLOWS THE FRONT,
IMPACTING MOST OF THE REGION NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA. SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS PERSIST ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN GULF
OF AMERICA BEHIND A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG
GAP WINDS WITH ROUGH SEAS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH
THIS MORNING. FARTHER NORTH, A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE WILL
DISSIPATE TODAY. LARGE NW SWELL FOLLOWS THE FRONT INTO THE WATERS
AS FAR SOUTH AS CABO SAN LAZARO. THE SWELL WILL REACH THE WATERS
OFF CABO SAN LUCAS AND THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS BY LATE TODAY,
BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT BY LATE SUN NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.
LOOKING AHEAD, EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS
ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC MON, BEFORE DIMINISHING INTO MID
WEEK. ANOTHER ROUND OF LARGE NW SWELL WILL IMPACT THE WATERS OFF
BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE TUE AND WED.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS
LOW PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA AND HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT PREVAIL IN THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS WILL PULSE
ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THIS MORNING AS A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA. MODERATE
SEAS MAY ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY DECREASE THIS
WEEKEND BEFORE FRESH GAP WINDS REDEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
AMERICA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING NORTH OF THE AREA OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC, IN THE WAKE OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT REACHING FROM BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE TO 25N125W. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS PERSIST
SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE, FROM 10N TO 20N WEST OF
110W. GENTLE BREEZES ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE. LARGE NW SWELL OF 8 TO
13 FT PREVAILS OVER THE REGION NORTH OF 20N AND WEST OF 120W. A
MIX OF NW SWELL WITH SHORTER PERIOD NE WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE AREA FROM 10N TO 20N WEST OF 125W.
MODERATE SEAS PERSIST ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE WATERS WEST OF 110W THROUGH TODAY, WHILE SUBSIDING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT A
BROADER AREA OF FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC
WEST OF 115W THROUGH LATE TODAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT THROUGH SUN AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST, ALLOWING TRADE WINDS TO DIMINISH. NEW NW SWELL WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CHRISTENSEN
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