677
AXPZ20 KNHC 151544
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT FEB 15 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N82W TO 05N110W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 05N110W TO BEYOND 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING S OF 10N AND E OF 88W, AND FROM 01N TO
17N BETWEEN 96W AND 119W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA. A LONG PERIOD NW SWELL
CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS,
WITH ROUGH SEAS NOTED N OF 22N AND VERY ROUGH SEAS N OF 29N.
FRESH NW WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THIS AREA. MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE LARGE NW SWELL WILL REACH THE WATERS OFF
CABO SAN LUCAS AND THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS TODAY, BEFORE
SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT BY LATE SUN NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. LOOKING
AHEAD, EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS ACROSS
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC MON, BEFORE DIMINISHING INTO MID WEEK.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LARGE NW SWELL WILL IMPACT THE WATERS OFF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE TUE AND WED.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS
LOW PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA AND HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT PREVAIL IN THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS WILL PULSE
ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING AS A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA. MODERATE
SEAS MAY ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY DECREASE THIS
WEEKEND BEFORE FRESH GAP WINDS REDEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
AMERICA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS PERSIST SOUTH OF
THE FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE, FROM 10N TO 20N WEST OF 110W. GENTLE
BREEZES ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE. LARGE NW SWELL OF 8 TO 12 FT
PREVAILS OVER THE REGION NORTH OF 15N AND WEST OF 120W. A MIX OF
NW SWELL WITH SHORTER PERIOD NE WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRADE
WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE AREA FROM 10N TO 15N WEST OF 125W.
MODERATE SEAS PERSIST ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE WATERS WEST OF 110W THROUGH TODAY, WHILE SUBSIDING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT A
BROADER AREA OF FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC
WEST OF 115W THROUGH LATE TODAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT THROUGH SUN AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST, ALLOWING TRADE WINDS TO DIMINISH. NEW NW SWELL WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ERA
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