089
AXPZ20 KNHC 152105
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT FEB 15 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 05N110W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 05N110W TO BEYOND 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING S OF 10N AND E OF 87W, AND FROM 00N TO
19N BETWEEN 94W AND 118W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA. A LONG PERIOD NW SWELL
CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS, WITH
ROUGH SEAS NOTED N OF 22N AND VERY ROUGH SEAS N OF 28N. FRESH NW
WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THIS AREA. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS PREVAIL
ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WITH SEAS TO 5 FT. LIGHT TO MODERATE
WINDS AND SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE LARGE NW SWELL WILL BEGIN SUBSIDING BELOW
8 FT BY LATE SUN NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. FRESH NW WINDS WILL
PREVAIL IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING
AHEAD, EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS ACROSS
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC MON, BEFORE DIMINISHING INTO MID WEEK.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LARGE NW SWELL WILL IMPACT THE WATERS OFF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE TUE AND WED.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS
LOW PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA AND HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT PREVAIL IN THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH NE TO E WINDS WILL PULSE ACROSS THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MODEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT PREVAILS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN
AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA. MODERATE SEAS MAY
ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS OFFSHORE
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS PERSIST SOUTH OF
THE FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE, FROM 05N TO 20N WEST OF 110W.
GENTLE BREEZES ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE. LARGE NW SWELL OF 8 TO 11 FT
PREVAILS OVER THE REGION NORTH OF 15N AND WEST OF 120W. A MIX OF
NW SWELL WITH SHORTER PERIOD NE WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRADE
WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE AREA FROM 10N TO 15N WEST OF 122W.
MODERATE SEAS PERSIST ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE WATERS WEST OF 110W THROUGH TODAY, WHILE SUBSIDING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT A BROADER
AREA OF FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC WEST OF
115W THROUGH LATE TODAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT
THROUGH SUN AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST, ALLOWING TRADE WINDS TO DIMINISH. NEW NW SWELL WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ERA
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