319
AXPZ20 KNHC 160306
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN FEB 16 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 04N100W TO 05N110W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N110W TO 07N125W TO BEYOND 03N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 06N TO 09N
BETWEEN 125W AND 128W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA, BETWEEN 1028 MB NEAR 31N130W WEST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND 1003 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
MEXICO. RECENT SCATTEROMETER AND A SHIP OBSERVATION ALSO
INDICATED FRESH WINDS OFF PUNTA EUGENIA AS WELL. EARLIER
ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA ALSO CONFIRMED LARGE WAVE HEIGHTS OFF
BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS IS DUE TO LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL REACHING AS
FAR SOUTH AS OFF CABO SAN LUCAS AND CLARION ISLAND. GENTLE
BREEZES AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
LATE SUN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE LARGE NW SWELL OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL SUBSIDE
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTE AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON,
THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TUE. LARGE NW SWELL WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT LATE MON INTO WED OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA, MAINLY NORTH OF CABO
SAN LAZARO. FARTHER SOUTH, EXPECT STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE GAP
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF AMERICA.
LOOKING AHEAD, EXPECT ANOTHER PULSE OF GAP WINDS POSSIBLY TO
MINIMAL GALE FORCE ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC THU.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS
LOW PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA AND HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT PREVAIL IN THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH NE TO E WINDS WILL PULSE ACROSS THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MODEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT PREVAILS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN
AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA. MODERATE SEAS MAY
ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS OFFSHORE
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
BROAD RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N, ANCHORED BY 1028
MB HIGH PRESSURE NEAR 30N130W. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS
PERSIST SOUTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE, FROM 05N TO 20N WEST OF
110W. GENTLE BREEZES ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE. LARGE NW SWELL OF 8 TO
11 FT PREVAILS OVER THE REGION NORTH OF 20N AND BETWEEN 120W AND
135W. A MIX OF NW SWELL WITH SHORTER PERIOD NE WAVES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE AREA FROM 10N TO 20N WEST
OF 122W. MODERATE SEAS PERSIST ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DISSIPATE AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF 28N THROUGH EARLY TUE, THEN
CONTINUE INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER ROUND OF NW SWELL WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT, AND BRINGING 8 TO 10 FT WAVE HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
WATERS NORTH OF 20N THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK, AND 8 TO
9 FT NW SWELL MIXED WITH SHORTER PERIOD NE SEAS OVER THE TRADE
WIND ZONE FROM 05N TO 20N WEST OF 120W. LOOKING AHEAD, A THIRD
ROUND OF NW SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION NORTH OF 15N WEST OF
130W BY THU.
CHRISTENSEN
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