061
AXPZ20 KNHC 161521
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN FEB 16 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1515 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN PANAMA NEAR 08N78W TO
04N100W AND TO 04N118W. THE ITCZ STRETCHES FROM 04N118W TO
05N130W AND BEYOND 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED FROM 00N TO 12N AND BETWEEN 100W AND 116W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS LOCATED WELL TO THE WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE AND EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS SUPPORTING TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS. MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THIS BODY OF
WATER. SEAS ARE 3-6 FT IN THE AREA. GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE PREVALENT IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. SEAS ARE PEAKING NEAR 10 FT A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF SW MEXICO. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 5-8 FT.
ELSEWHERE IN THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS, INCLUDING THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
LATE TODAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE LARGE NW SWELL OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL SUBSIDE
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTE AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT THROUGH MON,
THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TUE. LARGE NW SWELL WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT LATE MON INTO WED OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA, MAINLY NORTH OF CABO
SAN LAZARO. FARTHER SOUTH, EXPECT STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE GAP
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TUE ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF AMERICA.
LOOKING AHEAD, EXPECT ANOTHER PULSE OF GAP WINDS POSSIBLY TO
MINIMAL GALE FORCE ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC THU.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO REGION, SPREADING DOWNSTREAM TO 91W. SEAS IN THESE
WATERS ARE 3-5 FT. MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS
AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE NOTED IN THE GULF OF PANAMA. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE
PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL PULSE TO STRONG SPEEDS AT
NIGHT DURING MOST OF THE WEEK. MODERATE SEAS MAY ACCOMPANY THESE
WINDS. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH AMERICA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
AN EXPANSIVE 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE AREA
SUPPORTS MODERATE TO FRESH ANTICYCLONIC WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE
TRADES REGION, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF 27N AND WEST OF 110W. SEAS IN
THESE WATERS ARE 6-9 FT DUE TO LARGE NW SWELL. ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT NW SWELL IS ENTERING THE FAR NW WATERS, SUSTAINING
SEAS OF 7-10 FT. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS ARE EVIDENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DISSIPATE AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF 28N THROUGH EARLY TUE, THEN
CONTINUE INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER ROUND OF NW SWELL WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT, AND BRINGING 8 TO 10 FT WAVE HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
WATERS NORTH OF 20N THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK, AND 8 TO
9 FT NW SWELL MIXED WITH SHORTER PERIOD NE SEAS OVER THE TRADE
WIND ZONE FROM 05N TO 20N WEST OF 120W. LOOKING AHEAD, A THIRD
ROUND OF NW SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION NORTH OF 15N WEST OF
130W BY THU.
DELGADO
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