575
AXPZ20 KNHC 162111
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN FEB 16 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2105 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN PANAMA NEAR 08N78W TO
07N95W AND TO 04N116W. THE ITCZ STRETCHES FROM 04N116W TO
06N130W AND BEYOND 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
PRESENT FROM 00N TO 13N AND BETWEEN 95W AND 116W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR 31N129W CONTINUES TO EXTEND
TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF MEXICO. A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FORCES MAINLY FRESH NW WINDS IN THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BASIN, WHILE PRIMARILY
MODERATE NW WINDS ARE FOUND IN THE NORTHERN WATERS. SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. A RECENT
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS CAPTURED GENTLE TO MODERATE
NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. A
LARGE AREA OF NW SWELL IS MOVING ACROSS THESE WATERS, SUPPORTING
SEAS OF 7-9 FT.
MEANWHILE, MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF SW MEXICO. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 5-8 FT.
ELSEWHERE IN THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS, INCLUDING THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE LARGE NW SWELL OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT
THROUGH MON, THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TUE. LARGE NW SWELL WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT LATE MON INTO WED OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA, MAINLY
NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO. FARTHER SOUTH, EXPECT STRONG TO NEAR-
GALE FORCE GAP WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC TUE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN GULF OF AMERICA. LOOKING AHEAD, EXPECT ANOTHER PULSE OF
GAP WINDS POSSIBLY TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC THU.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY SOUTH OF PANAMA AND
COSTA RICA. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE EVIDENT
IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO, SPREADING DOWNSTREAM TO 93W BASED ON
SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 3-5 FT.
ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL PULSE TO STRONG SPEEDS AT
NIGHT DURING MOST OF THE WEEK. MODERATE SEAS MAY ACCOMPANY THESE
WINDS. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH AMERICA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ENTERING THE FAR NW WATERS. AN
EXPANSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA
SUPPORTS MODERATE TO FRESH ANTICYCLONIC WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE
TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC, ESPECIALLY WEST OF 110W. A SIGNIFICANT
NW SWELL IS ENTERING THE FAR NW WATERS, SUPPORTING SEAS OF 8-12
FT. MEANWHILE, A DECAYING SWELL REGION DOMINATES MUCH OF THE
REGION, ESPECIALLY WEST OF 105W, SUSTAINING SEAS OF 7-9 FT.
ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
EVIDENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DISSIPATE AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERING THE FAR NW WATERS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF 28N THROUGH EARLY TUE, THEN
CONTINUE INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA. NW SWELL IS FOLLOWING THE FRONT,
BRINGING 8 TO 12 FT WAVE HEIGHTS ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK, AND 8 TO 9 FT NW SWELL MIXED
WITH SHORTER PERIOD NE SEAS OVER THE TRADE WIND ZONE FROM 05N TO
20N WEST OF 120W. LOOKING AHEAD, A THIRD ROUND OF NW SWELL WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 130W BY THU.
DELGADO
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