434
AXPZ20 KNHC 170304
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON FEB 17 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 08N95W AND TO 04N115W.
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N115W TO 06N125W TO BEYOND 02N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 04N TO 06N AND
BETWEEN 112W AND 116W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE WELL WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS WEAKENING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS IS ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. LARGE
NW SWELL OF 7 TO 9 FT LINGERS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. GENTLE BREEZES AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE LARGE NW SWELL OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA LATE MON, THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TUE. ANOTHER
ROUND OF LARGE NW SWELL WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT LATE MON INTO WED
OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA, MAINLY NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO. FARTHER
SOUTH, EXPECT STRONG TO NEAR- GALE FORCE GAP WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EARLY MON INTO MON NIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF
AMERICA. LOOKING AHEAD, EXPECT ANOTHER PULSE OF GAP WINDS
POSSIBLY TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC THU.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY SOUTH OF PANAMA OFF
THE AZUERO PENINSULA, AND FARTHER NORTH OFF NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE EVIDENT IN
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO, SPREADING DOWNSTREAM TO 95W BASED ON
EARLIER SATELLITE- DERIVED WIND DATA. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE
3-5 FT. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE
TO FRESH NE-E WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD, PULSING TO FRESH TO STRONG MON NIGHT. MODERATE
SEAS MAY ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS
OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR 30N132W IS WEAKENING AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. LARGE NW SWELL, RANGING
FROM 8 TO 12 FT, ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT, COVERING MUCH OF THE
AREA NORTH OF 18N AND WEST OF 130W. PREVIOUS NW SWELL OF 7 TO 8
FT LINGERS FROM 05N TO 20N BETWEEN 105W AND 120W, MIXED WITH A
COMPONENT OF SHORTER PERIOD NE SEAS ATTRIBUTED TO MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW. GENTLE BREEZES AND MODERATE
SEAS PERSIST ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
WATERS NORTH OF 25N INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH LATE TUE. THE
LARGE NW SWELL WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF
20N. A SECOND FRONT WILL FOLLOW, MOVING EAST OF 140W BY TUE
NIGHT, THEN MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE BY MID WEEK, LEAVING A TRAILING STATIONARY FRONT
ALONG ROUGHLY 27N. A THIRD ROUND OF NW SWELL WILL FOLLOW THIS
FRONT ACROSS WATERS WEST OF 130W. IN ADDITION, HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF
FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM 05N TO 20N WEST OF 125W. THE NW SWELL WILL
MIX WITH THE SHORTER PERIOD NE SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRADE
WIND FLOW. GENTLE BREEZES AND MODERATE SEAS WILL CONTINUE
ELSEWHERE.
CHRISTENSEN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page