646
AXPZ20 KNHC 171521
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON FEB 17 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1515 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: A ROBUST RIDGE NORTH OF THE
AREA WILL SUPPORT GAP WINDS TO GALE FORCE ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC TODAY, ACCOMPANIED BY ROUGH SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS
EASTWARD.
FOR DETAILS, PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS AND
OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT THE WEBSITES:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NW COLOMBIA NEAR 07N78W TO 08N99W
AND TO 05N117W. A 1010 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED ALONG THE MONSOON
TROUGH NEAR 05N114W. THE ITCZ STRETCHES FROM 05N117W TO 05N129W
AND TO BEYOND 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
FROM 02N TO 15N AND BETWEEN 97W AND 117W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION CONCERNING THE GALE
WARNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE FAR NW WATERS
OF THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THIS RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA RESULT IN
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WATERS NORTH OF
PUNTA EUGENIA. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 5-7 FT. IN THE REST OF
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS
AND SEAS OF 6-8 FT ARE PREVALENT.
OUTSIDE OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL IN THE REMAINING OFFSHORE WATERS
OF MEXICO AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE DECAYING NW SWELL NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, ANOTHER
ROUND OF LARGE NW SWELL WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS
LATE TODAY, SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH WED OFF BAJA
CALIFORNIA, BUT STAYING MAINLY NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO. SEAS
WILL PEAK AROUND 11 FT IN THE FAR NW CORNER. LOOKING AHEAD,
EXPECT ANOTHER PULSE OF GAP WINDS POSSIBLY TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE
ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC THU INTO FRI.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A ROBUST HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN UNITED
STATES FORCES FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION, SPREADING DOWNSTREAM TO 91W. SEAS IN
THESE WATERS ARE 4-6 FT. FARTHER EAST, MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY
FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE NOTED IN THE GULF OF
PANAMA. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD, PULSING TO STRONG SPREADS AT NIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS. MODERATE SEAS MAY ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS.
OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
AMERICA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR 32N135W CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTHERLY
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EVIDENT IN THE NE WATERS. MODERATE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND SEAS OF 8-11 FT ARE NOTED NORTH OF THE
ITCZ TO 25N AND WEST OF 125W. MEANWHILE, A LARGE NW SWELL IS
PRODUCING SEAS UP TO 12 FT IN THE FAR NW WATERS. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, LARGE NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD
OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND
GRADUALLY DECAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF 140W BY TUE
NIGHT, THEN INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTE BY MID WEEK, LEAVING A TRAILING STATIONARY FRONT ALONG
ROUGHLY 27N. ANOTHER ROUND OF NW SWELL WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT
ACROSS WATERS WEST OF 130W. IN ADDITION, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TRADE
WINDS FROM 05N TO 20N WEST OF 125W. THE NW SWELL WILL MIX WITH
THE SHORTER PERIOD NE SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRADE WIND FLOW.
GENTLE BREEZES AND MODERATE SEAS WILL CONTINUE ELSEWHERE.
DELGADO
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