696
AXPZ20 KNHC 172103
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON FEB 17 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2055 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: A ROBUST RIDGE NORTH OF THE
AREA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT GAP WINDS TO GALE FORCE ACROSS THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THIS EVENING. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER
SATELLITE PASS CAPTURED NEAR GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS. THESE
WINDS ARE PRODUCING ROUGH SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH
TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD.
FOR DETAILS, PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS AND
OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT THE WEBSITES:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN PANAMA NEAR 08N78W TO
06N97W TO A 1012 MB LOW PRES NEAR 06N113W AND TO 05N117W. THE
ITCZ STRETCHES FROM 05N117W TO 05N129W AND TO BEYOND 03N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 03N TO 13N AND
BETWEEN 100W AND 117W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION CONCERNING THE GALE
WARNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED WELL WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE
SUSTAINS MAINLY MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS NORTH
OF PUNTA EUGENIA. IN THE REMAINDER OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
PREVALENT. OUTSIDE OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL IN THE REST OF THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF MEXICO AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, LARGE NW SWELL IS ENTERING THE NORTHERN
OFFSHORE WATERS AND FORECAST TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH WED
OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA, BUT STAYING MAINLY NORTH OF CABO SAN
LAZARO. SEAS WILL PEAK AROUND 11 FT IN THE FAR NW CORNER. SEAS
WILL DIMINISH MIDWEEK, BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF LARGE NW SWELL WILL
REACH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, EXPECT ANOTHER
PULSE OF GAP WINDS TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC THU
INTO FRI. SEAS WILL PEAK AROUND 13 FT THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO, SPREADING DOWNSTREAM TO 90W. SEAS IN THESE
WATERS ARE 4-6 FT. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD, PULSING TO STRONG SPREADS MAINLY AT NIGHT
AND MORNING HOURS. MODERATE SEAS MAY ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS. WINDS
WILL FRESH UP AT NIGHT LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND IN THE
GULF OF PANAMA. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT
TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR 32N133W SUPPORTS
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE-E WINDS NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND WEST
OF 120W. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 6-12 FT, WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS
OCCURRING IN NORTHERN WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE NW SWELL.
ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, LARGE NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD
OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND
GRADUALLY DECAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF 140W BY TUE
NIGHT, THEN INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTE BY MID WEEK, LEAVING A TRAILING STATIONARY FRONT ALONG
ROUGHLY 27N. ANOTHER ROUND OF NW SWELL WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT
ACROSS WATERS WEST OF 130W. IN ADDITION, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TRADE
WINDS FROM 05N TO 20N WEST OF 125W. THE NW SWELL WILL MIX WITH
THE SHORTER PERIOD NE SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRADE WIND FLOW.
GENTLE BREEZES AND MODERATE SEAS WILL CONTINUE ELSEWHERE.
DELGADO
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