012
AXPZ20 KNHC 180343
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE FEB 18 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: A ROBUST RIDGE NORTH OF THE
AREA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT GAP WINDS TO GALE FORCE ACROSS THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THIS EVENING. EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS CAPTURED NEAR GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY
WINDS. THESE WINDS ARE PRODUCING ROUGH SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS
EASTWARD.
FOR DETAILS, PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS AND
OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT THE WEBSITES:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN PANAMA NEAR 07.5N78W TO
06N112W AND TO 04N120W. THE ITCZ STRETCHES FROM 04N120W TO
05N140W AND BEYOND. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT
FROM 04N TO 13N BETWEEN 101W AND 117W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION CONCERNING THE GALE
WARNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED WELL WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE
SUSTAINS MAINLY MODERATE NW TO N WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS NORTH
OF PUNTA EUGENIA. IN THE REMAINDER OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
PREVALENT. OUTSIDE OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL IN THE REST OF THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF MEXICO AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE
TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THESE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT. FARTHER NORTH, A LARGE NW SWELL IS ENTERING THE
NORTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS AND FORECAST TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH WED OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA, BUT STAYING MAINLY NORTH OF CABO
SAN LAZARO. SEAS WILL PEAK AROUND 11 FT IN THE FAR NW CORNER
TUESDAY. SEAS WILL DIMINISH MIDWEEK, BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF LARGE
NW SWELL WILL REACH THE AREA THU. LOOKING AHEAD, EXPECT ANOTHER
PULSE OF GAP WINDS TO GALE FORCE ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC WED LATE
NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING. SEAS WILL PEAK AROUND 13 FT THU NIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TO E WINDS ACROSS THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO, SPREADING DOWNSTREAM TO 90W. SEAS IN THESE WATERS
ARE 4-6 FT. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD, PULSING TO STRONG SPREADS MAINLY AT NIGHT
AND MORNING HOURS. MODERATE SEAS MAY ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS. WINDS
WILL FRESH UP AT NIGHT LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND IN THE
GULF OF PANAMA. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT
TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR 34N130W SUPPORTS
MAINLY MODERATE NE-E WINDS NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND WEST OF 120W.
SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 6-10 FT, WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS
OCCURRING IN NORTHERN WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE NW SWELL.
ELSEWHERE, GENTLE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, LARGE NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD
OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND
GRADUALLY DECAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF 140W BY TUE
NIGHT, THEN INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTE BY MID WEEK, LEAVING A TRAILING STATIONARY FRONT ALONG
ROUGHLY 27N. ANOTHER ROUND OF NW SWELL WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT
ACROSS WATERS WEST OF 130W. IN ADDITION, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TRADE
WINDS FROM 05N TO 23N WEST OF 125W. THE NW SWELL WILL MIX WITH
THE SHORTER PERIOD NE SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRADE WIND FLOW.
GENTLE BREEZES AND MODERATE SEAS WILL CONTINUE ELSEWHERE.
KRV
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