254
AXPZ20 KNHC 180915
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE FEB 18 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: A GAP WIND EVENT WILL SUPPORT
N GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BEGINNING WED
NIGHT AS A A HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ESE ACROSS THE GULF OF AMERICA. SEAS WILL
QUICKLY BUILD TO AROUND 12 FT BY THU MORNING WITHIN THE AREA OF
THE GALE FORCE WINDS. HOWEVER, SEAS WILL LIKELY PEAK TO 14 FT THU
NIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE BELOW GALE FORCE AND SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT FRI LATE NIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
EAST AND THE FRONT WEAKENS.
FOR DETAILS, PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS AND
OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT THE WEBSITES:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN PANAMA NEAR 07.5N78W TO
05N100W AND TO 04N120W. THE ITCZ STRETCHES FROM 04N120W TO
04N140W AND BEYOND. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT
FROM 04N TO 08N EAST OF 86W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS DEPICTED FROM
01N TO 07N BETWEEN 100W AND 106W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION CONCERNING THE GALE
WARNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED WELL WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE
SUSTAINS MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH NW TO N WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA. IN THE REMAINDER OF THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS ARE PREVALENT, EXCEPT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WHERE
MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT PREVAIL. LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL IN THE REST OF
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF MEXICO AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, A GAP WIND EVENT WILL SUPPORT N GALE FORCE WINDS
OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BEGINNING WED NIGHT AS A A HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
ESE ACROSS THE GULF OF AMERICA. SEAS WILL QUICKLY BUILD TO
AROUND 12 FT BY THU MORNING WITHIN THE AREA OF THE GALE FORCE
WINDS. HOWEVER, SEAS WILL LIKELY PEAK TO 14 FT THU NIGHT. WINDS
WILL DECREASE BELOW GALE FORCE AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT
FRI LATE NIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST AND THE FRONT
WEAKENS. FARTHER NORTH, A LARGE NW SWELL IS ENTERING THE NORTHERN
OFFSHORE WATERS AND FORECAST TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH WED
OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA, BUT STAYING MAINLY NORTH OF CABO SAN
LAZARO. SEAS WILL PEAK AROUND 11 FT IN THE FAR NW CORNER TUESDAY.
SEAS WILL DIMINISH MIDWEEK, BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF LARGE NW SWELL
WILL REACH THE AREA THU.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO, SPREADING DOWNSTREAM TO 88W. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE
4-7 FT. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD, PULSING TO STRONG SPREADS MAINLY AT NIGHT
AND MORNING HOURS. MODERATE SEAS MAY ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS. WINDS
WILL FRESH UP AT NIGHT LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND IN THE
GULF OF PANAMA. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT
TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR 32N129W SUPPORTS
MAINLY MODERATE NE-E WINDS NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND WEST OF 120W.
SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 7-10 FT, WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS
OCCURRING IN NORTHERN WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE NW SWELL.
ELSEWHERE, GENTLE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, LARGE NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD
OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND
GRADUALLY DECAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF 140W BY TUE
NIGHT, THEN INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTE BY MID WEEK, LEAVING A TRAILING STATIONARY FRONT ALONG
ROUGHLY 27N. ANOTHER ROUND OF NW SWELL WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT
ACROSS WATERS WEST OF 130W. IN ADDITION, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TRADE
WINDS FROM 07N TO 23N WEST OF 127W. THE NW SWELL WILL MIX WITH
THE SHORTER PERIOD NE SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRADE WIND FLOW.
GENTLE BREEZES AND MODERATE SEAS WILL CONTINUE ELSEWHERE.
KRV
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