380
AXPZ20 KNHC 181614
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE FEB 18 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING:
A GAP WIND EVENT WILL SUPPORT N GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC BEGINNING WED NIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE
WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ESE ACROSS THE GULF OF
AMERICA. SEAS WILL QUICKLY BUILD AND REACH 10 TO 12 FT BY THU
MORNING WITHIN THE AREA OF THE GALE FORCE WINDS. HOWEVER, SEAS
WILL LIKELY PEAK TO 13 TO 15 FT THU NIGHT. BOTH WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FOR DETAILS, PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS AND
OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT THE WEBSITES:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN COSTA RICA ACROSS 05N100W
TO 04N118W. AN ITCZ STRETCHES FROM 04N118W TO 03N130W TO BEYOND
04N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT NEAR THE
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 02N TO 08N BETWEEN 77W AND 87W, AND NEAR THE
ITCZ 02N TO 08N BETWEEN 90W AND 118W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION CONCERNING THE GALE
WARNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED WELL WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE
SUSTAINS MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH NW TO N WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA. IN THE REMAINDER OF THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS ARE PREVALENT, EXCEPT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WHERE
MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT PREVAIL. LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL IN THE REST OF
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF MEXICO AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, A GAP WIND EVENT WILL SUPPORT N GALE FORCE
WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BEGINNING WED NIGHT AS A A
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE ESE ACROSS THE GULF OF AMERICA. SEAS WILL QUICKLY BUILD TO
AROUND 10 TO 12 FT BY THU MORNING WITHIN THE AREA OF THE GALE
FORCE WINDS. HOWEVER, SEAS WILL LIKELY PEAK TO 13 TO 15 FT THU
NIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE BELOW GALE FORCE AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
BELOW 8 FT FRI LATE NIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST AND
THE FRONT WEAKENS. FARTHER NORTH, A LARGE NW SWELL IS ENTERING
THE NORTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS AND FORECAST TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH WED OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA, BUT STAYING MAINLY NORTH OF
CABO SAN LAZARO. SEAS WILL PEAK AROUND 11 FT IN THE FAR NW CORNER
TODAY. SEAS WILL DIMINISH MIDWEEK, BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF LARGE NW
SWELL WILL REACH THE AREA THU.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO, SPREADING DOWNSTREAM TO 88W. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE
4 TO 7 FT. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, PULSING TO STRONG MAINLY AT
NIGHTTIME AND MORNING HOURS. MODERATE SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
WINDS. WINDS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA WILL FRESH UP AT NIGHT LATE
THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS
OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR 32N129W SUPPORTS
MAINLY MODERATE NE-E WINDS NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND WEST OF 120W.
SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 7 TO 10 FT, WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS
OCCURRING IN NORTHERN WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE NW SWELL.
ELSEWHERE, GENTLE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, LARGE NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD
OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND
GRADUALLY DECAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF 140W BY TUE
NIGHT, THEN INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTE BY MID WEEK, LEAVING A TRAILING STATIONARY FRONT ALONG
ROUGHLY 27N. ANOTHER ROUND OF NW SWELL WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT
ACROSS WATERS WEST OF 130W. IN ADDITION, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TRADE
WINDS FROM 07N TO 23N WEST OF 127W. THE NW SWELL WILL MIX WITH
THE SHORTER PERIOD NE SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRADE WIND FLOW.
GENTLE BREEZES AND MODERATE SEAS WILL CONTINUE ELSEWHERE.
CHAN
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