497
AXPZ20 KNHC 182221
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE FEB 18 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING:
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF
OF AMERICA WILL CAUSE A GALE-FORCE GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. SEAS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
AND NEARBY WATERS ARE GOING TO PEAK AT 14 TO 16 FT. BOTH WINDS
AND SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.
FOR DETAILS, PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS AND
OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT THE WEBSITES:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES_EASTPAC.PHP FOR MORE
DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM COSTA RICA-
PANAMA BORDER ACROSS 04N93W TO 05N118W. AN ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
05N118W TO 03N130W TO BEYOND 05N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS PRESENT NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 02N TO 08N
BETWEEN 80W AND 87W, AND NEAR BOTH FEATURES FROM 02N TO 09N
BETWEEN 103W AND 128W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOUT A GALE WARNING.
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM A 1026 MB HIGH TO
SOUTHEAST OF THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THIS FEATURE IS
SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE NW TO N WINDS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FT
IN MODERATE NW SWELL WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NEAR THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WITH 1 TO 3 FT SEAS
ARE PRESENT AT THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. GENTLE TO MODERATE SW TO
NW WINDS AND SEAS AT 3 TO 5 FT PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINING MEXICO
OFFSHORE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, A GAP WIND EVENT WILL SUPPORT N GALE FORCE
WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BEGINNING WED NIGHT AS A A
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE ESE ACROSS THE GULF OF AMERICA. SEAS WILL QUICKLY BUILD TO
AROUND 10 TO 12 FT BY THU MORNING WITHIN THE AREA OF THE GALE
FORCE WINDS. HOWEVER, SEAS WILL LIKELY PEAK TO 13 TO 15 FT THU
NIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE BELOW GALE FORCE AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
BELOW 8 FT FRI LATE NIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST AND
THE FRONT WEAKENS. FARTHER NORTH, A LARGE NW SWELL IS ENTERING
THE NORTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS AND FORECAST TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH WED OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA, BUT STAYING MAINLY NORTH OF
CABO SAN LAZARO. SEAS WILL PEAK AROUND 11 FT IN THE FAR NW CORNER
TODAY. SEAS WILL DIMINISH MIDWEEK, BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF LARGE NW
SWELL WILL REACH THE AREA THU.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
PERSISTENT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AT THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ARE SUSTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS ACROSS THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO, SPREADING DOWNSTREAM TO 90W. SEAS IN THESE
WATERS ARE FROM 4 TO 6 FT. GENTLE WITH LOCALLY MODERATE S TO SW
WINDS AND 3 TO 5 FT PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AMERICA,
COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR OFFSHORE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, PULSING TO STRONG MAINLY AT
NIGHTTIME AND MORNING HOURS. MODERATE SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
WINDS. WINDS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA WILL FRESH UP AT NIGHT LATE
THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS
OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM A 1026 MB HIGH TO
SOUTHEAST OF THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THESE FEATURES SUPPORT
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WITH 6 TO 9 FT SEAS IN MODERATE TO LARGE NW
SWELL NORTH OF 25N AND WEST OF 120W. FARTHER SOUTH FROM THE ITCZ
TO 25N AND WEST OF 120W, MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND SEAS
AT 7 TO 9 FT ARE PRESENT. GENTLE NNE TO E WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT
SEAS IN MODERATE NW SWELL ARE SEEN EAST OF 120W, NORTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH. GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE SE TO SW TO W WINDS
AND 5 TO 6 FT SEAS IN MIXED MODERATE SWELL PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE
ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH.
FOR THE FORECAST, LARGE NW SWELL NORTH OF 20N AND EAST OF 130W
WILL GRADUALLY DECAY THROUGH WED. LAT TONIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE EAST OF 140W AND BRING A NEW SET OF NW SWELL TOWARD BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THIS SWELL WILL
MAINTAIN ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF 10N INTO THIS
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WILL SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM 07N TO
23N WEST OF 127W. SOUTH OF 10N, THE SOUTHEAST COMPONENT OF THE NW
SWELL WILL MIX WITH MODERATE TRADE-WIND SWELL TO PROLONG MODERATE
SEAS. GENTLE BREEZES AND MODERATE SEAS WILL CONTINUE IN THIS AREA.
CHAN
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