041
AXPZ20 KNHC 190333
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED FEB 19 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.
UPDATED THE FORECAST PARAGRAPHS OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS SECTIONS
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING:
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF
OF AMERICA WILL CAUSE A GALE-FORCE GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. SEAS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
AND NEARBY WATERS ARE GOING TO PEAK AT 14 TO 16 FT. BOTH WINDS
AND SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.
FOR DETAILS, PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS AND
OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT THE WEBSITES:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES_EASTPAC.PHP FOR MORE
DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM COSTA RICA-
PANAMA BORDER ACROSS 05N95W TO 08N110W. AN ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
08N110W TO 05N127W TO BEYOND 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 01N TO 05N BETWEEN 125W AND 130W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ABOUT
A GALE WARNING.
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR
32N128W. THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE NW TO N
WINDS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 10 FT IN MODERATE NW SWELL WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND NEAR CABO SAN LUCAS. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WITH 1
TO 3 FT SEAS ARE PRESENT AT THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. GENTLE TO
MODERATE SW TO NW WINDS AND SEAS AT 3 TO 5 FT PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINING MEXICO OFFSHORE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, CONSECUTIVE WAVES OF LARGE NW SWELL WILL
MAINTAIN ROUGH SEAS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NEAR THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS INTO THIS WEEKEND. N WINDS RELATED TO A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF AMERICA IS GOING TO
CAUSE GALE-FORCE GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FROM WED
EVENING THROUGH FRI EVENING. VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED DURING THIS GAP WIND EVENT. BOTH WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT. LATE THIS WEEKEND,
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NW TO N WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND NEAR CABO
CORRIENTES.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
PERSISTENT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AT THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ARE SUSTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS ACROSS THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO, SPREADING DOWNSTREAM TO 92W. SEAS IN THESE
WATERS ARE FROM 4 TO 6 FT. GENTLE WITH LOCALLY MODERATE S TO SW
WINDS AND 3 TO 5 FT PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AMERICA,
COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR OFFSHORE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, PERSISTENT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS AT
THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH NE
TO E WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THIS WEEKEND,
PEAKING AT STRONG DURING THE NIGHTTIME AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS. WINDS IN THE
GULF OF PANAMA WILL BECOME MODERATE TO FRESH BY FRI EVENING.
OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
AMERICA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS TRIGGERING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 98W AND 112W. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM A 1023 MB HIGH TO SOUTHEAST OF THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THESE FEATURES SUPPORT LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS WITH 6 TO 9 FT SEAS IN MODERATE TO LARGE NW SWELL NORTH OF
24N AND WEST OF 120W. FARTHER SOUTH FROM THE ITCZ TO 24N AND
WEST OF 120W, MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND SEAS AT 6 TO 8
FT ARE PRESENT. GENTLE NNE TO E WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS IN
MODERATE NW SWELL ARE SEEN EAST OF 120W, NORTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH. GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE SE TO SW TO W WINDS AND 5 TO 6
FT SEAS IN MIXED MODERATE SWELL PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE ITCZ AND
MONSOON TROUGH.
FOR THE FORECAST, LARGE NW SWELL NORTH OF 21N AND EAST OF 128W
WILL GRADUALLY DECAY THROUGH WED. LAT TONIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE EAST OF 140W AND BRING A NEW SET OF NW SWELL TOWARD BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THIS SWELL WILL
MAINTAIN ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF 10N INTO THIS WEEKEND.
IN ADDITION, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WILL SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM 04N TO 20N
WEST OF 118W. SOUTH OF 10N, THE SOUTHEAST COMPONENT OF THE NW
SWELL WILL MIX WITH MODERATE TRADE-WIND SWELL TO PROLONG MODERATE
SEAS. GENTLE BREEZES AND MODERATE SEAS WILL CONTINUE IN THIS
AREA.
KRV
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