757
AXPZ20 KNHC 191604
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED FEB 19 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1530 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU BEHIND A
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF AMERICA, AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. STRONG GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THU MORNING THROUGH LATE THU NIGHT. PEAK SEAS
OF 12 TO 14 FT WILL ACCOMPANY THE WINDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
BELOW GALE FORCE FRI MORNING, WITH SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING ON SAT.
FOR DETAILS, PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS AND
OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT THE WEBSITES:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES_EASTPAC.PHP FOR MORE
DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 05N121W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 05N121W TO BEYOND 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 03N TO 09N EAST OF 89W, AND FROM 07N
TO 13N BETWEEN 105W AND 119W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION
REGARDING THE GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
A 1015 MB LOW HAS BEEN ANALYZED OVER SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA, AND
TROUGHING EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW THROUGH WESTERN
MEXICO. AN ADDITIONAL TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH THE WATERS OFFSHORE
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. OTHERWISE, WEAK RIDGING PREVAILS OVER
THE REST OF THE MEXICO OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS
GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE NW WINDS OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OCCURRING
THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. RECENT ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA
SHOWS ROUGH SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH
OF 20.5N, WITH SEAS OF 3 TO 6 FT NOTED OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO, AND 1 TO 2 FT SEAS THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, ROUGH SEAS IN NW SWELL WILL OCCUR OFFSHORE OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL LEAD TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
NW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY FRI. FARTHER SOUTH, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED OFFSHORE OF JALISCO AND MICHOACAN TONIGHT
INTO THU MORNING AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF AMERICA AND A TROUGH IN
WESTERN MEXICO. LOOKING AHEAD, MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS WILL
DEVELOP LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF
OF CALIFORNIA AND OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AS TROUGHING
PREVAILS IN THE REGION.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO FRESH E TO NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO AS LOW PRESSURE PREVAILS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE N TO NE WINDS ARE NOTED
NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE SW
WINDS OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE TROUGH. SEAS OF 2 TO 5 FT PREVAIL IN
THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA.
FOR THE FORECAST, PULSING FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS WILL
OCCUR IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING EACH NIGHT AND MORNING. MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS. ELSEWHERE, N WINDS WILL
PULSE TO MODERATE TO FRESH SPEEDS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA EACH
NIGHT AND MORNING THU NIGHT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE,
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH THE FAR NORTHWESTERN WATERS FROM
30N135W TO 28N140W, AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N TO NE WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS TO 8 FT ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE, RIDGING EXTENDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WATERS, SUPPORTING MODERATE N TO NE WINDS ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ. LOCALLY FRESH E
TO NE WINDS ARE NOTED FROM 08N TO 18N WEST OF 135W. SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ, GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE SE WINDS
PREVAIL. MULTIPLE SETS OF NW SWELL ARE PROMOTING ROUGH SEAS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OPEN WATERS, MAINLY OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND FROM 05N TO 21W WEST OF 120W.
FOR THE FORECAST, A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N135W TO 28N140W
WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THU, PRODUCING MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF THE FRONT. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL PROMOTE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N TO NE WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS NORTH OF 27N AND EAST OF 125W LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI.
MIXED NW AND W SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF
05N AND WEST OF 120W THROUGH FRI BEFORE SEAS DIMINISH INTO THIS
WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, RIDGING EXTENDING THROUGH THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WATERS WILL SUPPORT MODERATE N TO NE WINDS NORTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND ITCZ, WITH LOCALLY FRESH WINDS OCCURRING FROM 05N TO
20N WEST OF 120W.
ADAMS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page